#美联储降息 The bull market at the end of 2017, I remember it clearly. At that time, the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates, the US dollar was strong, yet Bitcoin stubbornly surged from just over 3,000 to 20,000. Many people said this defied logic, but it was only later that I understood — it was a liquidity-driven feast, and the market has its own rules.

Looking at the expectations for 2026 now, it feels like history is repeating itself to some extent, but with differences. The US dollar fell nearly 10% in 2025, the largest annual decline since 2017, which is quite interesting. The Fed's rate cut expectations are at 96%, and Trump might replace Powell to push for further rate cuts — all pointing in one direction: the arrival of a loosening cycle.

Having experienced so many cycles, I’ve learned that the turning point of monetary policy is often the strongest catalyst. When the dollar depreciates, liquidity floods the market, and capital seeks safe-haven assets, the appeal of "non-sovereign currencies" like Bitcoin becomes evident. This is nothing new; it’s just the rhythm of history repeating.

But I remain cautious about saying that 2026 will definitely see a rise. The rate cut expectations in 2018 were also quite strong, but what happened? The bear market still came. The key is to watch the pace of policy implementation and where market sentiment shifts. Sometimes, expectations themselves are the biggest trap.

However, from a strategic perspective, this direction is correct. The outline of the next cycle is emerging, and early preparation is never wrong.