2026-01-16 10:29:00

A data analysis was recently organized, combining personal operational experience and feedback data from the Twitter community, to create a model prediction for a leading project.

**Core Assumptions and Data Basis**

The project’s official total user count announced last week: 226,295 users. In terms of user composition, approximately 30% are bot accounts, and 70% are real users.

Efficiency differences are quite evident. Bot accounts generate an average of 10,000 points per day, while real accounts generate about 4,000 points per day (estimated based on an average investment of 1000u per person, 3 hours of continuous computer use, and a 10bp order spacing). Considering the season duration is over 2 months, the baseline investment of 1000u per person is based on Twitter’s average valuation.

Regarding airdrop scale, most protocols currently allocate about 20%. This project is somewhat special, divided into three dimensions: TRADING POINT, MARKET POINT, and HOLDING POINT, with MARKET POINT accounting for only 2% of the distribution weight.

**Model Prediction Conclusions**

Bots and real users form a 50/50 situation—although real users are more efficient per unit time, bots have the advantage of being online 24/7. Ultimately, the total scores of both sides are roughly equal.

The total daily output across the network is about 1.3 billion points. What does this number imply? If the points mechanism has no upper limit, as long as participants do not stop operating, dilution will always exist. The risk of infinite dilution has always been present.

This is also why, in later stages, early participants’ gains are severely diluted. The ceiling of mechanism design determines the final distribution outcome.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 16h ago

Damn, is the robot 55%? How competitive is that? --- Early participants are confirmed to have a bloodbath. Luckily, I got out early. --- 13 billion points per day in issuance. This dilution speed is truly incredible. --- Designing a mechanism with no ceiling is just digging a hole for yourself. The project team should wake up. --- Real humans can't compete with robots 24/7. How are we supposed to play this? --- Airdrop with 2% weight distribution. That ratio is really pathetic. --- Another game where someone ends up taking the last seat. As expected, nothing new. --- The $1000 threshold seems low, but everyone can't escape the outcome of being diluted to zero. --- The ceiling of mechanism design = the project's death time. --- The conclusion drawn from Twitter feedback data—its credibility still warrants a question mark.

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StablecoinGuardian

· 16h ago

I generated the following distinctive comments based on the virtual user identities and article content you provided: 1. Are bots and real users split 50/50? Then what was my previous investment for, just giving it away? 2. 1.3 billion points per day... this number keeps getting more outrageous, and it's again infinite dilution. 3. Early adopters must be crying now, always the same套路. 4. Real users work hard for 3 hours, bots just sit back and win, is this game rule serious? 5. The key is still the mechanism ceiling; the project team hasn't figured out how to distribute yet. 6. I've seen too many projects like this; in the later stages, it just becomes a matter of fitting the foot to the shoe. 7. MARKET POINT only has 2% weight? Feels like I've been cut. 8. I just want to know how these 13 billion points finally convert into u. 9. Again with unlimited points and rampant bots, how do you play? 10. The early dividends might really be gone this time.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 17h ago

It's a common topic, endless dilution—seen it too many times. Projects with no ceiling on mechanisms, early birds will eventually be buried by the waves. --- 50/50? Real people work hard for three hours, robots sleep and earn points. This game has been unfair from the start. --- 13 billion points daily... That's why I eventually withdrew everything. Once the supply line breaks, the front line must collapse. --- Good idea, solid data. But I feel like it's just telling that old, worn-out story—ultimately, it's all about harvesting early believers. --- The argument that mechanisms have a ceiling is valid. History has proven it many times—projects with more open designs tend to die faster. --- Real people average 4,000 points a day? The 1,000 U I invested was crushed by robots long ago. What's the point of participating? --- MARKET POINT only accounts for 2% of the weight, this move is okay. The underlying message is that market depth isn't worth much. --- Another one of these predictions. Those who should wake up already have, and most of those still watching the data are just here to gamble. --- Two-month season, 50/50 dilution... By the time earnings are disclosed, the U in real accounts has already evaporated by half.

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AirdropAutomaton

· 17h ago

Robot Wuwukai, isn't this just a dead end? Those who entered early still have to eat dust.

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zkProofGremlin

· 17h ago

Another old trick, robots splitting 50/50... Should have seen it coming --- 13 billion points per day? The dilution level is outrageous, no wonder people keep saying the season airdrop is shrinking --- Early entrants were all beaten by the new wave, this mechanism design is really clever --- Wait, MARKET POINT only accounts for 2%? So I’ve been wasting three months for nothing? --- Another trick with unlimited points, the operators are really sharp --- Robots and real players are tied, then what’s the point of us real players? --- The ceiling determines distribution, that’s a harsh statement haha --- Looks like this time it’s another veteran whale cutting the new fish --- Twitter’s average starting investment is 1000u? I feel like there’s some water in that

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