BTC breaking through $100,039 will trigger $1.6 billion in liquidations, but whales are adding positions on dips.

According to the latest news, if BTC breaks through $100,039, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.624 billion; conversely, if it falls below $91,327, the long liquidation strength will reach $1.372 billion. Currently, BTC is priced at $95,432, positioned between two key risk levels. Interestingly, whales are buying on dips, and the options market is betting on an upward move. This divergence is worth noting.

Liquidation Strength Map: The Dual Risks Facing BTC

According to Coinglass data, BTC is currently in a “sandwiched” position:

These two levels form a relatively balanced liquidation strength structure. The short liquidation strength above is slightly larger, indicating that the market has more hedging bets on an upward move; the long liquidation below is comparatively smaller, reflecting that the risk of breaking support is relatively manageable.

Market Divergence: Whales Accumulating vs Retail Profit-Taking

On-chain data shows a clear divergence between bulls and bears:

Whales' Actions

• Large holders with 10 to 10,000 BTC have recently accumulated over 56,000 BTC
• Major exchanges like Binance have seen a surge in large deposits, peaking at 21.76 BTC recently
• These actions typically indicate institutional investors are optimistic about the market's future

Retail's Response

• Small wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have been selling off after the price broke above $93,000
• This profit-taking behavior contrasts sharply with whale accumulation

Historical Insights

Historically, the simultaneous occurrence of whale accumulation and retail profit-taking often signals an upcoming bull market. The current market pattern aligns with this historical trend.

Technical and Options Market Resonance

Beyond on-chain data, technical analysis and derivatives markets are also sending positive signals:

• Multiple technical indicators show upward momentum, with recent resistance levels at $94,500, $97,500, and $99,000
• In Deribit options market, there is strong demand for BTC call options, especially at strike prices of $98,000 and $100,000
• This suggests market participants have expectations of a breakout to the upside

Key Levels and Risk Assessment

Upcoming Critical Price Levels

1. $97,500: 50-week moving average, an important technical support
2. $99,000: near the 365-day VWAP, a zone of historical high trading volume
3. $100,000: psychological milestone and trigger point for $1.624 billion short liquidation

Risk Warnings

• Breaking above $100,039 will trigger $1.624 billion in short liquidations, potentially pushing prices higher or causing volatility
• The downside risk below $91,327 is smaller, but if triggered, it will release $1.372 billion in long liquidations
• Current geopolitical factors also introduce uncertainties that require ongoing attention

Summary

BTC is currently in a tense position. On the upside, $1.624 billion in short liquidations await release; on the downside, $1.372 billion in long liquidations serve as a defense line. More interestingly, whale accumulation on dips, bullish bets in the options market, and retail profit-taking form a classic market divergence pattern. Historically, such divergence often signals that a trend is about to clarify. The key next step is to watch whether BTC can break through the $97,500–$99,000 technical resistance zone, which will be crucial for determining the future direction.