On the 26th, Galaxy's visions for 2026: the crypto market between expected volatility and new growth opportunities

Author: Galaxy Research | Analysis: TechFlow

Introduction: when expectations clash with reality

2025 has taught even the most optimistic traders some harsh lessons. At the start of the year, sentiment was sky-high with predictions of Bitcoin surpassing $185,000. The reality? Quite different. The market oscillated between euphoria and panic, with Bitcoin reaching $126,080 on October 6th before slipping below $90,000 in December.

What actually happened? Regulatory reforms made progress, spot ETFs attracted continuous capital, and on-chain activity increased. Yet, liquidations, massive whale sales, and macroeconomic adjustments turned optimism into uncertainty. 2025 was not the boom hoped for, but the groundwork for what comes next.

Despite missed milestones, something significant occurred: institutional adoption took deep root. This is the starting point for Galaxy’s forecasts for 2026.

Outlook 2026: what to really expect

Bitcoin price between $50,000 and $250,000

By the end of 2027, Bitcoin could reach $250,000, but 2026 remains a year of structural uncertainty. The options market shows roughly equal probabilities of Bitcoin hitting $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026, with even more divergence by year-end.

Until Bitcoin stabilizes in the $100,000–$105,000 range, downside risk remains tangible in the short term. Uncertainty factors are numerous: the speed of AI implementation, global monetary policy, and the US midterm elections in November.

An interesting data point: implied volatility in the Bitcoin options market is changing character. Six months ago, puts and calls had similar expectations; today, put volatility is higher—a pattern typical of mature macro assets, not emerging digital currencies. This suggests Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class, regardless of its 2026 closing price.

The medium-to-long-term bullish thesis remains: with accelerated institutional adoption and growing demand for hedging against monetary devaluation, Bitcoin should follow gold’s path toward acceptance as a store of value.

Layer-1 and Layer-2: changing narratives

Solana (SOL - $143.34) reaches economic maturity

Market capitalization on Solana will likely rise to $2 billion from the current $750 million. It’s not just numerical growth: it marks the shift from a meme-driven economy to platforms with real business models. Capital markets on Solana will become the central pillar of on-chain economic activity.

At least one Layer-1 will integrate a native revenue source into the protocol

This is the big paradigm shift. Hyperliquid has already demonstrated how to embed a revenue-sharing model directly into a perpetual exchange. In 2026, at least one major Layer-1 will follow suit, channeling economic benefits directly to token holders. MegaEth is planning a native stablecoin that returns revenue to validators; Ambient aims to internalize inference fees. This is the transition from the “fat protocol theory” to the “fat app theory.”

Solana’s proposed inflation reduction will not advance

Despite enthusiasm, SIMD-0411 will not reach consensus in 2026. The community believes other priorities—such as microstructural market adjustments—deserve more attention.

Enterprise Layer-1s will shift from pilot projects to real regulation infrastructure

At least one Fortune 500 company will launch a branded enterprise L1 blockchain in 2026, managing over $1 billion in real economic activity. Unlike previous experiments, this will be a true specialized base chain, with validation managed by authorized banks, connected to public DeFi for liquidity and price discovery.

The revenue application/network layer ratio will double in 2026

Applications (DEXs, lending, wallets, consumer apps) will continue capturing increasing value relative to infrastructure levels. This will accelerate the consolidation of the “fat app theory.”

Stablecoins and tokenization: transforming financial infrastructure

SEC will grant exemptions for security tokens in DeFi

Likely in the form of “no-action letters” or “innovative exemptions,” 2026 will see regulatory approval for legitimate on-chain security tokens. This opens DeFi markets to traditional financial instruments in tokenized form, not just wrapped. Formal regulation is expected to begin in the second half of 2026.

Stablecoin volume will surpass the ACH system

Stablecoins (USDC - 2.23% share, USDE, PYUSD at $1.00) already circulate at a significantly higher velocity than traditional systems. With annual growth of 30-40%, volume should surpass the ACH system by the end of 2026, also driven by the upcoming GENIUS law.

Major banks will integrate stablecoins into their card payment back-ends

At least one of the three major payment networks will process over 10% of cross-border transactions via stablecoins on public blockchains in 2026. End users will continue to see balances in traditional formats, but net settlement will occur via tokenized dollars.

Tokenized equities will become official collateral

A major bank or broker will accept tokenized stocks as on-chain deposits in 2026, considering them equivalent to traditional securities.

DeFi: the changing of the guard

DEXs will account for over 25% of spot volume

Lack of KYC, more efficient fees, and greater composability are driving on-chain trading. From the current 15-17%, 2026 should see a jump toward 25%.

Futarchy-governed DAOs will surpass $500 million in treasury

Futarchy (governance via predictive markets) has proven sufficiently effective to push DAOs to adopt it as their primary decision-making system. With about $47 million already managed via futarchy, 2026 will see this figure exceed $500 million.

Crypto-collateralized lending will surpass $90 billion

Increased institutional participation and increasingly sophisticated DeFi protocols will sustain growth in on-chain and off-chain lending.

DeFi lending rates will remain moderate below 10%

With rising institutional liquidity, rate volatility will decrease significantly. Arbitrage between on-chain and off-chain rates will be easier, maintaining a stable floor.

Privacy tokens (ZEC - $413.58) will reach a market cap of $100 billion

With more funds deposited on-chain, users are questioning whether they want everyone to see their balances. On-chain privacy becomes a central theme. From the 2025 CAGR (+800% for ZEC), 2026 could see privacy tokens reach a total market cap of $100 billion.

Polymarket’s weekly volume will consistently exceed $1.5 billion

Predictive markets will continue explosive growth, with new capital efficiency layers and AI-driven order flows.

TradFi: convergence

Over 50 spot ETFs on altcoins will be launched in the US

With listing standards now approved by the SEC, 2026 will see acceleration. In 2025, over 15 ETFs on Solana (SOL), XRP, Hedera (HBAR), Dogecoin (DOGE), Litecoin, and Chainlink (LINK) were already listed. Similar numbers will follow in 2026.

Net inflows into crypto spot ETFs will exceed $50 billion

In 2025, inflows totaled $23 billion. With restrictions lifted for advisors and platforms like Vanguard entering the market, 2026 will accelerate further. New altcoin ETFs will unlock pent-up demand.

Bitcoin will be included in standard model portfolios

After Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo removed restrictions on Bitcoin, the next step is to include it in model portfolios with a strategic weight of 1-2%.

Over 15 crypto companies will be listed in the US

In 2025, ten companies either went public or upgraded their listings. With the regulatory window open, candidates like CoinShares, BitGo, Chainalysis, and FalconX will move toward listing in 2026.

More than five Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs) will need to sell, be acquired, or shut down

The Q2 2025 boom in DATs created many new operators without coherent strategies. With the market Net Asset Value multiple compressing, many will fail. Only DATs with scale advantages (like Strategy) or geographic advantages (like Metaplanet) will survive.

Predictive markets and regulation

US authorities will investigate insider trading in predictive markets

With trading volume exploding and scandals already emerging, insiders will be tempted to exploit privileged information in pseudonymous environments. Federal investigations will inevitably follow.

On-chain artificial intelligence

x402 payments will account for 30% of daily volume on Base

With increasingly sophisticated AI agents, standardized payment primitives will become central in execution layers. Base and Solana will lead this trend.

2025: when forecasts meet reality

Of the 23 outlooks launched on December 31, 2024, some were accurate, others missed completely. Here’s the summary:

Completely missed:

• Bitcoin did not surpass $150,000 in the first half (maxed at $126,080)
• AUM of Bitcoin spot ETFs did not reach $250 billion (stuck at $141 billion)
• Bitcoin was not among the assets with the best annual Sharpe ratio
• The Bitcoin community did not reach consensus on a major upgrade
• The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem grew only 30%, did not double
• ETH (now at $3.3K) did not surpass $5,500
• Ethereum staking rate remained below 50% (29.7%)
• On-L2 economic activity did not surpass Alt-L1

Correctly captured:

• At least one wealth management platform recommended Bitcoin allocation ≥2% (Morgan Stanley +4%)
• More than five countries invested in Bitcoin via official reserves (Bhutan, El Salvador, Kazakhstan, Czech Republic, Luxembourg)
• Most mining companies announced AI/HPC partnerships
• DeFi entered the “dividend era” (buybacks exceeded $1 billion)
• Futarchy governance was revived (MetaDAO launched 15 DAOs)
• At least 10 TradFi stablecoins were launched or announced

2026 will be defined by how the market applies these lessons. Volatility remains, but institutional foundations are now solid.