2026 Digital Asset Market Grand Prediction: Utility-Driven Replacing Speculation Narrative

Year-end and the end of the year, major institutions are releasing their annual outlook reports. The key points summarized here are based on “Outlook 2026: The Year Utility Wins,” published by CoinShares, a well-known European investment management firm established in 2014 with over $6 billion in assets under management. This 77-page in-depth research covers multiple dimensions including macroeconomics, mainstream adoption, regulatory evolution, and institutional acceptance, providing market participants with a systematic reference framework.

The Turning Point Is Here: From Speculation to Utility Qualitative Change

2025 marks a watershed year for the digital asset industry. The former speculative narrative is gradually fading, replaced by the gradual establishment of practical value. The report points out that Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, but more importantly, the growth logic of the entire industry has undergone a fundamental shift—no longer seeking to build a parallel financial system, but deeply integrating and upgrading with existing traditional financial structures.

Public blockchain infrastructure, institutional-grade liquidity, regulatory clarity, and the speed of integration with real-world use cases have exceeded market expectations. These developments collectively lay the foundation for the core theme of “Utility Wins” in 2026.

Macro Background: Structural Opportunities in a Fragile Recovery

The economic environment in 2026 can be described as a “soft landing on thin ice.” Overall growth expectations are weak but controllable, inflation continues to ease but not enough to significantly reduce. Tariff policy disruptions and global supply chain reorganization keep core inflation at high levels not seen since the early 1990s.

The Federal Reserve's policy will remain cautious. Interest rates are expected to fall to around 3%, but the process will be slow and conservative—deeply ingrained memories of the 2022 inflation crisis make a quick pivot unlikely.

CoinShares presents three scenarios: in an optimistic scenario (soft landing plus productivity surprises), Bitcoin could break through the 150,000 JPY level; in a baseline scenario (slow expansion), trading ranges are expected between $110,000-$140,000; in a recession or stagflation bear market scenario, it could drop to $70,000-$100,000.

Meanwhile, the erosion of the US dollar's reserve status is accelerating. The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 70% in 2000 to around 50% now. Emerging market central banks are diversifying holdings, increasing non-dollar assets like RMB and gold. This structural shift provides macro support for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value for long-term growth.

Mainstream Adoption of Bitcoin in the US: Institutional Barriers Basically Removed, Adoption Still Takes Time

By the end of 2025, institutional acceptance of Bitcoin within the US financial system has essentially been completed. Spot ETFs have been approved and widely launched, top-tier ETF options markets have formed, retirement plan restrictions are gradually lifted, companies can account for Bitcoin at fair value, and even the government is considering Bitcoin as a strategic reserve—these mark the removal of institutional barriers.

However, actual institutional adoption remains in early stages. Traditional financial operations, intermediary adaptation, wealth management channel transformation, and corporate compliance adjustments all require time.

The report provides specific expectations for 2026: support for Bitcoin ETFs by the four major brokerages, at least one major 401(k) provider allowing Bitcoin in retirement portfolios, at least two S&P 500 companies holding Bitcoin, and at least two major custodial banks offering direct custody services. These are gradual advances rather than explosive growth.

Corporate Holding of Coins Rapidly Expanding: Concentration Risks Emerge

Corporate holdings of Bitcoin are growing at an astonishing rate. From 266,000 BTC in 2024 to 1,048,000 BTC in 2025, with total value rising from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion—an almost 8-fold increase.

However, this growth reveals structural issues: MicroStrategy (MSTR) accounts for 61% of holdings, and the top ten companies control 84% of the market. Such extreme concentration poses significant risks.

This strategy faces two major threats: first, the companies' perpetual debt and cash flow obligations (annual cash flow close to $6.8 billion) may lead to default; second, refinancing risks—recent bonds mature in September 2028. If the company's mNAV approaches 1x or cannot refinance at zero interest, forced sale of Bitcoin becomes inevitable, potentially triggering a vicious cycle impacting the entire market.

Notably, the development of the IBIT options market has driven Bitcoin volatility significantly lower. While this signals market maturity, the decline in volatility may also weaken demand for convertible bonds, affecting corporate purchasing power. The turning point for volatility reduction occurred in spring 2025.

Diverging Regulatory Landscape: Fragmentation Moving Toward Coordination

The EU has established the most comprehensive legal framework for crypto assets—MiCA, covering issuance, custody, trading, and stablecoins. However, regulatory constraints exposed in 2025 indicate that some national regulators may challenge the effectiveness of cross-border passports.

The US is caught in a contradiction between innovation and fragmentation. Its deep capital markets and mature venture capital ecosystem lead the world, with market growth resuming, but regulatory authority remains dispersed among SEC, CFTC, Federal Reserve, and others. The Stablecoin legislation (GENIUS Act) has passed but is still being implemented.

Asia is forming a more consistent prudential regulatory group. Hong Kong, Japan, and others are advancing Basel III crypto capital and liquidity requirements; Singapore maintains a risk-oriented licensing system. Overall, Asian regulation is more clearly defined, with banking cooperation becoming a focus.

Hybrid Finance Rising: Accelerating On-Chain and Off-Chain Integration

Stablecoins: Market Infrastructure Takes Shape

Stablecoin market size exceeds $300 billion. Ethereum remains the largest share, but Solana is growing fastest. The GENIUS Act requires compliant issuers to hold U.S. Treasuries reserves, creating new demand for government bonds and strengthening the link between stablecoins and traditional finance.

Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) have monthly trading volumes exceeding $600 billion, with Solana's daily volume reaching $400 billion, demonstrating the maturity of on-chain trading infrastructure.

Tokenization of Real-World Assets: From Trials to Mainstream

Tokenized assets doubled in value within a year—from $150 billion at the start of 2025 to $350 billion. Private credit and U.S. Treasuries are the fastest-growing segments, reflecting institutional confidence in on-chain financial infrastructure. Gold tokenization exceeds $1.3 billion, BlackRock's BUIDL Fund assets have expanded significantly, JPMorgan Chase issued JPMD tokenized deposits on Base, all indicating substantial progress in institutional applications.

On-Chain Revenue-Generating Applications: Tokens Evolving from Speculative to Quasi-Equity

More protocols are generating annual revenues in the billions, directly distributed to token holders. Hyperliquid allocates 99% of its revenue for daily buybacks; Uniswap, Lido, and other mainstream protocols are adopting similar mechanisms. This shift is crucial—tokens are evolving from purely speculative assets to quasi-equity assets with cash flows.

Stablecoin Dominance: Difficult to Dislodge the Duopoly

Tether (USDT) accounts for 60% of the stablecoin market, Circle (USDC) for 25%. Despite new entrants like PayPal's PYUSD, the network effects and liquidity concentration make the duopoly hard to challenge.

The corporate adoption outlook for 2026 is clear: payment processors (Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, etc.) have structural advantages and can seamlessly switch to stablecoin settlements; on the banking side, JPMorgan Chase's JPM Coin performs well, with Siemens reporting up to 50% forex savings and settlement times reduced from days to seconds; e-commerce platforms like Shopify support USDC checkout, and markets in Asia and Latin America are piloting stablecoin payment solutions.

However, stablecoin issuers face interest rate risk. If the Federal Reserve's rate drops to 3%, issuers would need to issue an additional $887 billion in stablecoins to maintain current interest income, posing new sustainability challenges.

Trading Platform Competition Upgrades: Integration Imminent

Competition among existing players is intensifying, with fees dropping to single-digit basis points. Traditional financial giants—Morgan Stanley, E*TRADE, JPMorgan Chase—are preparing to enter, though initially relying on partnerships, with long-term threats evident.

Stablecoin issuers (like Circle) have strengthened control through the Arc mainnet. Revenue-sharing agreements between Coinbase and Circle for USDC are critical, as they directly impact platform profitability. Institutional clients contribute over 80% of Coinbase's trading volume, giving them strong bargaining power, while retail users are highly price-sensitive.

Decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, CME crypto derivatives, and other alternatives are diverting traffic. Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2026, with trading platforms and large banks competing through acquisitions for users, licenses, and infrastructure.

Smart Contract Platform Competition: Differentiation and Layering

Ethereum Consolidates Its Institutional Infrastructure Position

Ethereum's roadmap centered on Rollup scalability has achieved a leap in throughput—from 200 TPS a year ago to 4,800 TPS. Validators are pushing the base layer gas limit higher. The US Ethereum spot ETF has attracted around $13 billion in capital inflows.

In institutional-grade tokenization, BlackRock's BUIDL Fund and JPMorgan's JPMD demonstrate Ethereum's potential as an institutional platform.

Solana Rises as a High-Performance Alternative

Solana achieves performance breakthroughs with a highly optimized single-threaded environment, accounting for about 7% of DeFi total TVL. Stablecoin supply grew from $1.8 billion in January 2024 to over $12 billion, with RWA projects expanding rapidly. BlackRock's BUIDL grew from $25 million in September to $250 million. Technical upgrades include Firedancer client and DoubleZero validator network. The spot ETF launched on October 28 attracted $382 million in net inflows.

Next-Generation High-Performance Chains Seek Differentiation

New Layer-1s like Sui, Aptos, Sei, Monad, and Hyperliquid are pursuing competitive advantages through architectural innovation. Hyperliquid focuses on derivatives trading, accounting for over one-third of blockchain revenue. Market fragmentation is evident, with EVM compatibility gradually becoming a decisive competitive advantage.

Mining Industry Transformation: From Coin Mining to Computing Power Centers

Publicly listed miners increased total hash rate by 110 EH/s in 2025, driven mainly by Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, Iris Energy. More aggressively, miners have signed HPC (High-Performance Computing) contracts worth up to $650 billion.

By the end of 2026, Bitcoin mining revenue is expected to drop sharply from 85% of total miner income to below 20%, while HPC business margins will reach 80-90%.

Long-term, the mining model will include ASIC manufacturers, modular mining, intermittent mining (coexisting with HPC), and sovereign state mining—shifting from centralization to decentralized small-scale operations, which may be the ultimate direction of the industry.

Venture Capital Rebound: Funding Driven by New Sectors Rather Than Large Transactions

Crypto VC funding reached $188 billion in 2025, surpassing the total of $165 billion in 2024. The main drivers are large strategic deals: ICE's $20 billion investment in Polymarket, Stripe's $5 billion Tempo, and Kalshi's $3 billion funding.

In 2026, VC focus is expected to concentrate on four major areas: RWA tokenization (e.g., Securitize's SPAC, Agora's $50 million Series A showing institutional interest), AI and crypto integration (AI agents, natural language trading interfaces accelerating adoption), retail investment platforms (Coinbase acquiring Echo for $375 million, emerging platforms like Legion), and Bitcoin infrastructure (Layer-2 and Lightning Network projects).

Forecast Market: From Margins to Mainstream

During the 2024 US election, Polymarket's weekly trading volume exceeded $800 million, with active trading remaining strong post-election. Its predictive accuracy has been validated: about 60% of 60% probability events occur, and about 77-82% of 80% probability events occur.

In October 2025, ICE made a strategic investment of up to $20 billion in Polymarket, marking official recognition by mainstream financial institutions of prediction markets. The report forecasts weekly trading volume in 2026 to surpass $2 billion.

Overall Outlook: Accelerating Maturity Certainty

Digital assets are undergoing a qualitative change—from being driven by speculation to utility and cash flow, becoming increasingly similar to traditional equity assets.

The integration of public blockchains and traditional finance is no longer theoretical but a tangible reality. The rapid growth of stablecoins, tokenized assets, and on-chain applications is evident.

Enhanced regulatory clarity—US GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, Asian prudential frameworks—lays the groundwork for large-scale institutional adoption. Although gradual, institutional acceptance is unstoppable, and 2026 will be a key year for continued private sector advancement.

Platform competition is reshaping the landscape. Ethereum remains dominant but faces strong challenges from high-performance chains like Solana, with EVM compatibility becoming a critical advantage. Risks and opportunities coexist—high corporate token concentration poses sell pressure risks, but institutional-grade tokenization, stablecoin enterprise adoption, and prediction markets contain enormous growth potential.

Overall, 2026 will be a decisive year for digital assets transitioning from the fringe to the mainstream, from speculation to utility, and from fragmentation to integration.