The suspense over the Federal Reserve Chair successor heats up, and the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 has been significantly lowered.

2026-01-16 16:40:11

Abstract generation in progress

【BlockBeats】Latest news shows that market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy direction have undergone a significant adjustment. Recently, Trump hinted at possibly nominating someone other than National Economic Council Director Harret to succeed current Fed Chair Powell. Following this signal, traders adjusted their views on the pace of rate cuts in 2026.

According to the latest data from CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for rate cuts next year have noticeably tightened. By the end of 2026, the probability of no rate cuts at all has risen to 11.8%. More traders believe that the rate will only be cut by 25 basis points for the entire year, with a probability of 30.3%; the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 32.1%.

This shift reflects a reassessment of the Fed's future policy stance. The new leadership candidate may bring changes in policy style, making the market more cautious in its judgment of the long-term liquidity environment. For investors concerned with macroeconomic conditions, this is undoubtedly an important variable to monitor closely.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ShibaMillionairen't

· 21h ago

Wow, are we starting to play the personnel change game again? A single comment from Trump makes the market shake three times—truly unbelievable. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 30.3%? That ratio just doesn't seem right at all. Powell hasn't even stepped down yet, and we're already guessing the policy style of the new chair—this is the most surreal. Wait, does this mean there might be no rate cuts at all in 2026? Miners should be crying. Instead of worrying about who will take over, let's see how these fluctuations will affect the crypto market.

View OriginalReply0

MeltdownSurvivalist

· 22h ago

Damn, are we starting to play the personnel appointment and removal game again? The expectation of interest rate cuts has been cut so much, next year probably won't be a good time to be in the market. The probability of no rate cuts is already in the double digits, how hawkish do they have to be? Wait, is Trump up to some tricks again? Is it true or false? It feels like the crypto circle is about to be exploited by these big players again, typical of creating suspense first and then harvesting. They can't even manage affairs in 2026, what are we talking about long-term liquidity for? Laughing to death.

View OriginalReply0

OneBlockAtATime

· 22h ago

Wait, are the rate cut expectations being cut again? Trump is really stirring things up this time. Powell hasn't even gotten off the car yet, and they're already changing people. Is the market this timid? The probability of not cutting rates for 26 years is approaching 12, this pace doesn't seem right. The new chair comes in and starts tinkering with policies. I won't say whether your dollar is stable or not, but how do I trade my coins? This is the cost of political uncertainty. Every time, we have to re-bet.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoNomics

· 22h ago

ngl, the fed chair speculation is just noise masking the real signal—liquidity compression across the curve. if you're only watching the 25bp vs 50bp probabilities, you're missing the correlation matrix entirely. the *actual* trade is in the vol surface distortion, not the headline rate expectations.

Reply0

rugpull_survivor

· 22h ago

No more interest rate cuts, now it's time to buy the dip and wait for the flowers to bloom It's Trump causing trouble again. Changing the Federal Reserve Chair means starting the gamble all over again After 26 years, what's the point of cutting again? When liquidity tightens, you know who's not wearing pants Powell is still more reliable than the new guy, but this wave is really risky No interest rate cuts? Then the crypto market will have to hibernate, and my positions are crying

View OriginalReply0

IntrovertMetaverse

· 22h ago

Damn, it's Trump causing trouble again. Is the Fed Chair position so hotly contested? Powell might really be stepping down. No wonder the market is so volatile... The rate cut room has been cut in half. Crypto is going to have a tough time now. The new chair's style is completely unpredictable. It's safer to hold coins and wait and see. No rate cuts by the end of 2026? It seems the dollar is going to stay strong to the end.

View OriginalReply0

DeepRabbitHole

· 22h ago

The expectation of interest rate cuts keeps shrinking, what is this hinting at... As soon as personnel changes are announced, traders all panic.

View OriginalReply0

DefiPlaybook

· 22h ago

Playing the leader guessing game again? This time liquidity might be locked up. The probability of no rate cut doubles directly. Honestly, this has a pretty big impact on mining APY. Powell stepping down, the Federal Reserve turning hawkish, and the inflation hedge yields will need to be recalculated. Once this CME data is out, the funding costs for lending protocols will definitely jump, and players should review their positions. A change in policy style means all risk assets suffer, and Web3 is the first to be cleared out. Instead of waiting for a rate cut, it's better to look for arbitrage opportunities to fill this expectation gap. Is this a stunt? With such a high probability of no rate cut, my leveraged positions are a bit risky. This is the real black swan — not a technical issue, but policy measures directly causing a market crash.

View OriginalReply0