#我的2026第一条帖 Analyst: Bitcoin price approaches the average purchase price of short-term holders, with the trend expected to clarify after increased volatility

CryptoQuant analyst Axel stated that the current Bitcoin price (around $95,500) has approached the average cost basis of short-term holders ($99,460), with the gap narrowing to only 4%. Axel explained that the current situation is within a decision zone rather than a market collapse. Historically, areas near the cost basis often accompany increased volatility and become market response zones, which may continue the trend or trigger a reversal—either returning to a premium state or facing a new round of selling pressure. If the price stabilizes above $100,000 and short-term holders turn profitable, it indicates a shift to a bullish outlook. Conversely, if the discount rate returns to double digits (below -10%) and the price drops below approximately $89,500, it will significantly increase the pressure on loss-making holders.