Hotcoin Research | Focus on Short-Term Rebound Momentum and the Potential "Golden Pit" in the First Half of the Year

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.22 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, totaling $1.9 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $310.6 billion, recently increased by 1.01% over the past 7 days, with USDT making up 60.07%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up slightly while a few are down, including: BTC up 5.5% over 7 days, ETH up 6.6%, SOL up 3.1%, DASH up 141.5%, XMR up 54.9%.

This week, net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US: $1.417 billion; net inflows into US Ethereum spot ETFs: $478 million.

Market Forecast (January 19 - January 25):

Currently, the RSI index is 47.38 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed index is 50 (returning to neutral after months), the Altcoin Season Index is 33 (neutral, lower than last week).

BTC core range: $94,800 - $100,000

ETH core range: $3,250 - $3,400

SOL core range: $138 - $155

On-chain data shows reduced profit-taking pressure, institutions are turning back to net buying via spot ETFs, and bullish bets in the options market are increasing. Risk appetite is recovering, but BTC has accumulated significant historical trapped positions between $97,000 and $117,400, creating strong seller pressure. A cautious bullish stance is maintained for the first half of 2026. Recently, Chinese meme tokens have been quite popular on-chain. While focusing on short-term opportunities, there is a high alert for a consensus risk from mainstream institutions: in the first half of 2026 (possibly after January 26), the market may experience a significant “risk liquidation event,” leading to a sharp correction in asset prices.

Learn More Now

Weekly Major Events

January 12, geopolitical tensions intensified globally, gold, silver, and crude oil prices surged across the board, with gold futures surpassing $4,600 per ounce for the first time;

January 12, according to The New York Times, U.S. federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell. The investigation focuses on the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, marking an escalation in the long-standing conflict between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell;

January 11, CNBC reported that Walmart and Google announced a new partnership allowing shoppers to directly discover and purchase products from Walmart supermarkets and Sam’s Club, supporting transactions without leaving the AI chatbot;

January 13, former New York City Mayor Eric Adams launched the “NYC Token,” which quickly surged then pulled back after opening;

January 14, the Senate Agriculture Committee plans to release its draft crypto market structure bill (“Clarity Bill”) on January 21, with a key hearing scheduled for January 27;

January 14, according to Glassnode data, influenced by today’s crypto market rebound, total liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $684 million, with short positions liquidated at $577 million. This rebound also triggered the largest short liquidation since the “1011 Crash” among the top 500 cryptocurrencies;

January 15, multiple Federal Reserve officials publicly emphasized the importance of maintaining independence in monetary policy. Meanwhile, signals suggest a possible pause in rate cuts this month due to resilient U.S. economy and elevated inflation, requiring continued restrictive monetary policy;

January 15, Nikita Bier, head of X and Solana ecosystem advisor, stated, “We are revising developer API policies: applications that incentivize users to post on X (the so-called ‘InfoFi’) will no longer be allowed. Such mechanisms have caused大量低质量AI内容和回复式垃圾信息 on the platform;”

January 16, according to BeInCrypto, multiple insiders revealed that Polygon has conducted large-scale layoffs, with about 30% of staff dismissed this week. This is not Polygon’s first major layoff; earlier in 2024, nearly 20% of employees were cut.

Macroeconomics

January 13, U.S. December core CPI (unadjusted) annual rate: 2.6%, expected 2.70%, previous 2.60%;

November 15, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10: 198,000, below the expected 215,000, revised from 208,000 to 207,000;

January 15, according to CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 3.4%, with a 96.6% chance of holding rates steady.

ETFs

Between January 12 and January 16, net inflows into US Bitcoin spot ETFs: $1.417 billion; as of January 16, GBTC (Grayscale) outflows totaled $25.367 billion, with holdings of $15.634 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) holdings at $74.697 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs: $129.177 billion.

Net inflow into US Ethereum spot ETFs: $478 million.

Future Outlook

Industry Conferences

Consensus Hong Kong 2026 will be held from February 11 to 12 in Hong Kong, China;

ETHDenver 2026 will take place from February 17 to 21 in Denver, USA;

EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe’s largest and oldest annual Ethereum events, focusing on technology and community development.

Project Developments

SBF’s ex-girlfriend Caroline Ellison may be released on January 21, 2026. Previously, Caroline Ellison testified as a key witness in SBF’s 2023 criminal trial, her “significant cooperation” recognized by the judge but still resulting in imprisonment;

Immunefi, a crypto bug bounty platform, will launch its token IMU on January 22;

Meteora’s MET airdrop will end on January 23, after which unclaimed tokens will be added to the circulating community reserve for future rewards;

On-chain film development and funding project Sequel announced that its funded film THE MUSICAL on Base has been selected for the Sundance Film Festival competition. The film will premiere on January 25 in the U.S. Dramatic Competition.

Important Events

January 22, 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17: (万人);

January 23, 23:00, U.S. will release the final January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Token Unlocks

Official Trump (TRUMP) will unlock 50 million tokens on January 18, valued at approximately $271 million, representing 11.95% of circulating supply;

Ondo (ONDO) will unlock 1.94 billion tokens on January 18, valued at about $772 million, representing 57.23% of circulating supply;

LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.71 million tokens on January 20, valued at approximately $42.68 million, representing 6.36% of circulating supply;

River (RIVER) will unlock 1.5 million tokens on January 22, valued at about $29.84 million, representing 4.32% of circulating supply;

Soon (SOON) will unlock 21.88 million tokens on January 23, valued at approximately $7.55 million, representing 5.63% of circulating supply;

Humanity (H) will unlock 105 million tokens on January 25, valued at about $19.6 million, representing 4.57% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Reports,” we analyze market trends; with our exclusive column “Hot Coins Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets to reduce trial-and-error costs. Weekly, our researchers also connect with you via live streams to interpret hot topics and forecast trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize Web3’s value opportunities.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing involves risks. We strongly recommend investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.

Website:

X: x.com/Hotcoin_Academy

Mail: labs@hotcoin.com