#比特币2026年行情展望 CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost recently pointed out an interesting phenomenon facing Bitcoin: the average cost basis for long-term holders who entered 6 to 12 months ago is around $101,000. Meanwhile, investors who have held for 12 to 18 months tend to have a purchase cost concentrated around $81,700—which has now become a key support level in the market.

Simply put, if Bitcoin falls back to the $81,700 range, those long-term bottom-fishers are unlikely to sell in a panic. Retail investors who bought at the January 2025 peak are still holding their positions. The underlying logic is straightforward: the crypto market is a prolonged battle of "at what price did I buy?" Investors are making decisions to cut losses, hold, or sell based on their respective cost bases.

However, this "cost anchoring" game rule may not be the only way forward. Some projects are beginning to consider a fundamental question: what if we stop using "a certain dollar price" as support, and use something else instead?

Traditional markets focus on numbers on charts—support levels, resistance levels, target prices. A new perspective asks: why can't support levels be "the scale of newly onboarded users"? Why can't resistance levels be "the next efficiency improvement goal"? Why must target prices be anchored to a specific number, rather than actual milestones like "covering Y new markets X years ago"?

The core of this mindset shift is moving from "price consensus" to "value consensus." No longer letting price fluctuations dictate everything, but instead driving market perception through tangible progress—such as the daily increase in volunteer work, the growth curve of new users, or the expansion of project applications in real-world scenarios.

From another angle, this logic is very attractive to capital that is tired of price speculation. They are seeking not "an exit opportunity," but investing in something that genuinely creates value. If a project can clearly communicate that "our intrinsic value is growing daily through concrete actions, not swinging with exchange order books," that’s a strong signal.

In the long run, Bitcoin’s market is defined by halving cycles and bull-bear rotations. But if a project can establish its own "action cycle" and "impact milestones"—for example, defining value stages by "helping 100,000 users"—the market and community will gradually get used to measuring real progress with this new rhythm. This independent "value clock" might be more convincing than simply watching support levels on K-line charts.