2026-01-18 13:20:47

#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 The US December core CPI data just released shows a year-over-year increase of 2.6%, with a month-over-month rise of only 0.2%, both below expectations. Signs of inflation cooling are becoming more evident.

But don’t get too excited just yet; a closer look at this data set is quite interesting—housing costs are still rising (month-over-month +0.4%), food prices are still stubborn (month-over-month +0.7%), and energy prices have rebounded (month-over-month +0.3%), indicating that price stickiness definitely exists. These indicators are hard to crack, so the room for rate cuts is limited.

The market’s reaction is straightforward: the probability of a rate cut in April jumped to 42%, but don’t be too optimistic; the chance that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the January meeting is as high as 95%. Fed officials are also speaking frequently, with a clear underlying message—they need more data before truly acting, especially on sticky components like housing, which could extend the rate cut cycle.

Traders should be wary of two risks: first, political interference could disrupt the pace; second, the impact of future tariff policies on prices has not yet fully manifested. Future inflation volatility may be more complex than currently imagined.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

4 Likes

Reward
4
4
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

On-ChainDiver

· 11h ago

Housing and food, these two stubborn issues are really annoying. No rate cuts in sight. A 42% chance of a rate cut sounds pretty high, but the Fed folks aren't really planning to move; it was just a bluff. The tariff bomb hasn't gone off yet, and inflation will definitely pick up again later. Prices are sticky and persistent; this time, inflation won't be so easy to tame. Let's wait and see. The Federal Reserve is still on the sidelines, and we continue to HODL.

View OriginalReply0

LightningSentry

· 11h ago

Housing is really a chronic problem; even as inflation cools down, housing prices stubbornly refuse to loosen... There are still backup measures after the tariffs, just wait and see. --- The data looks good but the details are heartbreaking. The feeling that interest rate cuts are still far away has returned. --- Laugh out loud, inflation has decreased but food prices have risen again. It's really just a rotation of cutting the leeks. --- I'm too familiar with the Federal Reserve's rhetoric; 95% of the time they stay put... They're just leaving themselves an escape route. --- The key issue is those few hard bones that can't be bitten through. Only if the iron triangle of housing prices, energy, and food truly loosens will it count. --- 42% in April... Just listen and don't take it seriously. We still have to wait in vain in January.

View OriginalReply0

SerumSqueezer

· 11h ago

Housing costs are really a trap that can block the pace of rate cuts... The data looks good, but all the details are full of pitfalls. The Federal Reserve says they look at the data, but they've actually hinted that short-term moves are off the table. The 42% chance of a rate cut in April is probably hype. Tariffs are the real game changer; we can't see the true impact yet. That's what really counts as a black swan. The dream of rate cuts will have to wait longer. If housing can't be sorted out, everything else is pointless. It feels like the inflation cycle isn't that simple. Political interference makes it even harder to predict.

View OriginalReply0

ColdWalletGuardian

· 11h ago

Housing and food are the two tough nuts to crack. Without making progress here, rate cuts are just a distant dream, and the market is still dreaming. The Federal Reserve's bluff in April with a 42% probability was just a trick; January was the real turning point. The tariff card hasn't been played out yet, and the drama of recurring inflation is far from over. It's really too early to call inflation at the bottom. Food prices rose 0.7% month-on-month, and this number is a bit high. Price stickiness is the ceiling; until it's broken through, don't expect a feast of rate cuts.

View OriginalReply0