The adjustment is still ongoing, but the room for further decline is really limited.



Last week, after the market surged, it pulled back again. The issues lie in two areas—one is some artificial factors at play, and the other is that the technical aspect itself needs a rest. The underlying logic is to guide the market toward a "steady rise" rather than a frantic surge; we can only follow the rhythm.

From a weekly chart perspective, the bullish pattern is still intact, and the moving average alignment remains bullish. The weekly K-line just retested the breakout level; as long as it holds above 4034, there’s no problem. The upward-shifting 5-week moving average next week will provide short-term support.

At the daily level, the correction starting from 4190 has already formed a small to medium-term intraday central pivot. If the index probes lower to new lows, as long as there are no signs of accelerated decline, it will be a standard abc correction structure; if the c wave is weaker than the a wave, the conditions for a rebound will emerge.

Therefore, even if the index tests lower next week, there’s no need to panic. As long as the downward momentum hasn’t intensified, it’s possible to consider buying on dips. However, there is also a stronger scenario: if the index breaks above and stabilizes above the 5-day moving average, it could attempt to retest the previous high at 4190. Both situations require pre-planning responses.

On the sector side, last week’s AI applications and commercial aerospace sectors continued to cool down due to "artificial cooling." Next week, a technical rebound is highly likely. But note that such rebounds after breaking intraday lows often confirm the trend; whether the correction has truly ended depends on how the neckline pressure performs. The operational principle is simple—favor the strong over the weak, prioritizing targets with strong resilience and no technical breakdowns.

From a longer-term perspective, the stories of AI applications and commercial aerospace are far from over; 2026 will still be a key focus for the market. The valuation and investment potential in semiconductors and related sub-sectors are also very clear.
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BearMarketBrovip
· 15h ago
Here we go again with the 4034 and 4190 number games. No matter how eloquently you put it, it can't change the fate of being cut off.
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PrivateKeyParanoiavip
· 01-18 13:53
If we can't hold 4034, then we have to consider bottom fishing.
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PriceOracleFairyvip
· 01-18 13:50
nah the 4034 hold is just cope... manual intervention screaming loud rn tbh
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ForkTonguevip
· 01-18 13:48
It's another issue of whether 4034 will hold or not. I think this time it's really testing the bottom line, with both human factors and technical demands double pressure. We need to take it slow. There's no room to go lower, right? Then let's see if 4190 can push for another round. In my opinion, this wave of adjustment is just building a bottom. Don't rush to get in. AI and aerospace are cooling off about the same. A rebound is likely next week, but don't be fooled. Such sectors' rebounds might be the final confirmation, so keep a close eye on the neckline. In the long term, 2026 still has potential. I've always been optimistic about semiconductors; the value of allocation is right there. If 4034 can't hold, then it's really a mess. The weekly bullish pattern shouldn't be broken.
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GateUser-3824aa38vip
· 01-18 13:41
It's the same old trick, sometimes it's human factors, sometimes it's technical adjustments, but in the end, we just have to follow along.
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LiquiditySurfervip
· 01-18 13:31
Climb steadily and surely, don't be scared, as long as 4034 holds, everything will be fine. If the decline doesn't amplify, you can buy in; simple and straightforward, that's it. The rebound in AI is a confirmation; it depends on how the neckline looks. There's nothing to say about going weak and staying strong. If it can't break above the 5-day moving average, just keep waiting. We should follow this rhythm. Artificial cooling still needs to be observed; the real story will be exciting only at 2026.
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