2026-01-18 13:31:04

#美联储调降利率 The Federal Reserve Chair Candidate Changes, Market Reprices 2026 Interest Rate Path

A series of recent political developments are rewriting Wall Street's expectations. After the originally favored "dovish" candidate unexpectedly fell through, traders recalculated the Fed's future overnight. The data speaks: the probability of no rate cuts throughout 2026 has sharply risen to 11.8%, with only a 30.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 32.1% chance of a 50 basis point cut. What does this mean? The days of easy monetary policy may not be so easy anymore.

The market is now closely watching who will become the next Fed Chair. If a "hawkish" candidate advocating rate hikes during economic difficulties takes the helm, the probability has already surged to 60%, and the scenario changes entirely. The bond market responded immediately— the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.23%, a high not seen since September last year. Remember, rising yields mean falling bond prices and shifting capital flows.

Interestingly, the MOVE fear index recently hit a four-year low, seemingly hinting that the market's "peace" is a bit too eerie. But the reality is, potential shifts in interest rate policies, uncertainties around tariff decisions, and fluctuations in global economic data are quietly stacking risks. The crypto asset market has always been sensitive to macro liquidity—what happens to assets like $DUSK and $DASH if the Fed's policy stance truly turns to tightening? This is a question many traders are pondering.

In the short term, the new Fed Chair might send some mild signals to stabilize market expectations. But what about the long term? If signs of overheating appear, will the "hawkish" stance shift toward aggressive rate hikes? Historical data shows that such shifts often come quickly and fiercely.

Here's a question for you: if the Fed is truly led by "hawks," is the 2026 rate cut feast really going to be over? Will the crypto market enter a new round of correction or react in advance? How do you see the market rhythm in the coming months?

DUSK27,06%

DASH-6,63%

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PumpAnalyst

· 15h ago

Hawkish officials in power, liquidity tightening, this wave is really about to change the game. Looking at these data, the rate cut feast is indeed cooling down, and the crypto market has already been reacting in advance. Don’t ask why, just look at the recent pullback and you’ll understand. However, on the other hand, short-term stability signals might provide a rebound opportunity. There is still some room for a wave before technical support levels are broken. The key is to closely monitor US Treasury yields and capital flows. Once the trend truly shifts towards tightening, the big players will cut the leeks at a frightening speed. Finally, the opportunity to jump in? I don’t think so. It’s better to focus on risk management first and wait to see the official stance of the chairman before making any moves.

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MevHunter

· 01-18 13:55

Hawkish policymakers are really about to change the game now, the dream of rate cuts is shattered --- 4.23% yield, bonds are fleeing, how can there still be good days in the crypto world --- Talking about gentle signals, history tells us it's all lies, they turn around and hike rates --- MOVE index hitting a four-year low? I think it's just calm before the storm, too strange --- Rather than guessing what the Federal Reserve Chair's stance is, it's better to see how many months your holdings can support --- $DUSK, $DASH are about to be affected, liquidity tightens and they just drop flat --- The probability of no rate cuts in 2026 has surged to 11.8%, who can withstand that --- Tariffs and rate hikes, two landmines thrown together, will the crypto market fall first or react first? Anyway, it will definitely fall --- Short-term stability expectations? I don't believe you, hawks never act --- Overheating economy and aggressive rate hikes, if it really happens, it's a whole different story

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not_your_keys

· 01-18 13:54

Hawkish policymakers coming into power are basically bearish signals, the current wave in the crypto market is going to be tough. --- Wait, the MOVE index hitting a new low is actually a dangerous signal? That logic is a bit extreme. --- 60% chance of hawkishness... So should I buy the dip early or clear out my positions? I'm a bit confused. --- Instead of stressing over 2026, it's better to watch how US Treasury yields move in the next few months. --- $DASH and $DUSK seem to be taking a beating all along, and this wave is even more uncertain. --- Honestly, political uncertainties are too unpredictable. How do traders see this? --- If they really start to raise interest rates aggressively, the Fed will change its stance as quickly as flipping a page. It's better to run early than wait to be caught off guard.

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PensionDestroyer

· 01-18 13:51

Hawkish rise to power, don't expect a rate cut feast in 2026 The market seems too calm, the MOVE index hitting a new low is even more frightening $DUSK $DASH these small coins really need to panic, as the tightening cycle begins, the bloodsucking effect will activate Short-term stability signals are just anesthetic shots; historical patterns are there Come on, if they really raise interest rates aggressively, my holdings might take a hit

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TokenAlchemist

· 01-18 13:36

nah the MOVE index sitting at 4yr lows while 10yr yields rip to 4.23% is literally textbook complacency... that inefficiency vector ain't gonna last. hawkish fed chair = liquidity drain, simple state transition nobody wants to price in rn tbh

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digital_archaeologist

· 01-18 13:34

Hawkish rise is really a bit tough, it feels like the days of easing are truly gone --- MOVE index hits a four-year low, and some still dare to say it's peaceful? I think they're numb --- The probability of no rate cut in 2026 is only 11.8%, but what if it actually happens? crypto would drop so hard --- At 4.23% on US debt, it feels like funds are starting to flow into the bond market --- $DASH and similar assets are definitely following liquidity now, and the market looks even more fierce --- Instead of waiting for a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, it's better to start buying early and bet that policy shifts won't happen so quickly --- Tariffs and interest rate hikes together are a deadly combo, who can stop it? --- History shows that hawkish shifts to a more aggressive stance usually take three to five months. Is it too early to accumulate coins now? --- This kind of expectation game is a bit annoying; the market prices change daily --- Compared to the Federal Reserve chairperson candidate, I care more about how domestic policies coordinate. The information gap here is huge

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