2026-01-18 15:23:16

This week's gold market movement has been truly frustrating—rising to resistance, deep corrections, rapid shifts between bullish and bearish sentiments, and the market is extremely sensitive to every piece of news. Early in the week, it pushed up from support levels, reaching 4642 on January 14th before being pushed down. Afterwards, capital outflows intensified, and on Friday, it dropped straight to 4536, with a weekly range close to 106 points. Honestly, this kind of market tests your mental resilience the most.

The key point is that several heavyweight events are coming next week. The US retail sales data on January 17th is very important—it can reveal the resilience of consumer spending. If the data is weak, safe-haven demand will likely increase, making gold more attractive. The CPI data on January 22nd is even more critical; if it comes in below expectations, the market will reinforce expectations of a rate cut in March, and gold prices will rise accordingly. If it exceeds expectations, there will be pressure. Additionally, speeches from Federal Reserve officials will also influence expectations regarding rate cuts.

From a technical perspective, the 4536 level must hold; only then is there a chance for a rebound, targeting the 4600-4620 range. Resistance above is at 4642 and the 4600 integer level. Be cautious of being knocked down if the rebound reaches these points.

Overall, next week is likely to remain in a predominantly sideways and weak rhythm. It is recommended to operate mainly with a high-short strategy. If data like CPI signals negative surprises and the 4536 support is broken, the downside space could open even further. Conversely, if the data is good, focus on whether the resistance zone between 4600 and 4642 can be broken; only after a breakout should you consider turning bullish.

One last very important point—after the CPI is released, the moment of sharp jump or plunge is the most prone to problems. Be sure to strictly set take-profit and stop-loss orders, and never chase the market or panic sell.

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AlwaysQuestioning

· 11h ago

If 4536 doesn't hold, there's hope; if it breaks, it will break straight through. Feel like next week's CPI moment needs to be closely watched.

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NotFinancialAdvice

· 11h ago

A 106-point amplitude is indeed unsustainable, and we have to wait for the CPI again. Every time it's like this, it's a test of patience. --- If 4536 doesn't break, there's still hope; if it breaks, just go all-in on the short side. --- Honestly, this week is just a gamble on the CPI. I just want to know who can hit the right point. --- The idea of going short is not wrong, but I'm just worried that when the data is released, everyone will react at once, and it will be too late to respond. --- I just want to ask if anyone has been hammered at 4642 and still dares to do it again. --- Taking profit and stop-loss sound simple, but when the price suddenly jumps, everyone wants to hold on and try their luck. --- I'm really impressed by this kind of market; rapid switching up and down is just not playable. --- Waiting for the CPI to be over, anyway, next week we'll see what the Americans have to say.

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MintMaster

· 11h ago

If I can't hold 4536, I'll just accept the loss. This market really tests your mental state, it's too exhausting.

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HalfBuddhaMoney

· 11h ago

This market really tests patience; we must hold at 4536, or it will be troublesome if it breaks directly. I need to stay alert on CPI day; the gap-up moment is the easiest to get caught. The bearish outlook isn't wrong, but I'm worried about being proven wrong if the data exceeds expectations. The rebound target is 4600-4620; if it can't break through resistance, I still need to continue shorting. Waiting to see the retail sales data; if it's weak, gold could really take off.

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GasGuzzler

· 11h ago

If I can't hold 4536, I'll liquidate everything. I'm not in the mood to waste time on this market.

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AirdropHunter

· 11h ago

If 4536 breaks, I'll cut my losses immediately. I really can't understand this kind of market condition. On the day of the CPI, I should have gone to bed early and not bothered myself. It's both high altitude and resistance watching again. As always, stop-loss is the most important. Next week, these data will torment us again. Gold really tests the mental state. Listening to your analysis, it seems 4536 can't hold. Once it breaks, I should run.

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