Bitcoin repeatedly fluctuates around $96,000. Compared to the report on October 23rd, this wave of decline has reached 12%, and many are beginning to worry about the subsequent market. But if you look closely at the underlying macro logic, the situation may not be as pessimistic.

**Macro fundamentals are still decent, just a short-term bottleneck**

The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is still ongoing, and M2 money supply is growing steadily. These factors provide support for Bitcoin. However, the recent $4.57 billion ETF outflows have indeed put pressure on the price, which also explains the recent correction. Worth noting is that the advancement of the *CLARITY Act* could become a turning point; once this bill is implemented, the path for large banks to enter will be paved.

**What on-chain data is telling us**

From on-chain indicators, solid buy support has formed around $84,000, making this a relatively strong short-term support level. Conversely, the resistance level at $98,000 is the cost basis for short-term holders, and currently, the price is stuck there. Key indicators like MVRV-Z suggest that the market is currently in a relatively fair value zone, neither extremely greedy nor extremely fearful.

**How to view the target**

Using $145,000 as a baseline valuation, and adjusting with a +25% macro factor, the team’s target price is set at $185,500. In other words, from the current $96,000, there is nearly 100% upside potential. Although this target may seem aggressive, the logical chain is clear: macro support + policy push + on-chain support form a combined force.

Of course, a 100% increase cannot be achieved overnight, and there will certainly be fluctuations in between. But from the entire cycle perspective, the support strength is indeed there.