2026-01-18 15:32:44

Open prediction markets sound simple, but technically building a permissionless trading platform is not that complicated.

But here’s a key issue: anyone can create a market, but that doesn’t mean everyone knows how to operate one.

Market design involves much higher thresholds than just technical implementation. You need to have legal contract design skills, understand risk management mechanisms, and grasp incentive structures — these cannot be solved with a simple "let’s bet on this." The real challenge lies in how to build a sustainable, risk-controlled, and trustworthy market system for participants. This is the key factor that determines the success or failure of a DeFi trading platform.

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HodlAndChill

· 10h ago

Market design is the real barrier, and that's correct. I've seen too many projects just stack technology, but their incentive mechanisms are as fragile as paper.

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ContractTearjerker

· 19h ago

Exactly, that's why 90% of prediction markets in the market are just ways to scam retail investors.

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BlockTalk

· 19h ago

Haha, you're so right. That's the main reason most new projects fail. --- Low technical barriers are actually a poison; many people jump in wanting to copy and paste. --- Market design is the real skill; most teams haven't even considered risk models. --- Honestly, things that seem simple often hide pitfalls. --- Poor incentive mechanism design can ruin even the best ideas. --- That's why so few prediction markets actually survive. --- Operational ability > technical ability; this is really crucial for DeFi projects. --- Just saying "Let's gamble on this" and expecting to open a market? Bro, wake up. --- Sustainability is the key; short-term reckless growth is meaningless. --- So it's no surprise that markets with various bugs right after launch are so common.

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ContractFreelancer

· 19h ago

Well said, the low technical barrier is really just superficial; operations are the real bottleneck. --- A bunch of projects just copy and paste code, resulting in chaotic incentive mechanisms, and users leave halfway. --- Risk management is indeed easy to overlook; many teams haven't even considered how to handle extreme situations. --- So why do so many prediction markets end up as gambling? It's because the design approach is wrong. --- Knowing law, understanding economics, and also understanding user psychology? Finding someone with all these skills is difficult. --- Trust is the most expensive cost; it's much harder than writing smart contracts. --- Really, things that seem simple often have the most pitfalls. I've seen too many failed markets.

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ContractSurrender

· 19h ago

There's nothing wrong with that; the low technical barrier has actually become a burden. A bunch of people rush in without even thinking through the incentive mechanisms before jumping in.

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