2026-01-18 17:21:37

The market has indeed been extremely hot recently. Bitcoin surged from 87,000 to 97,000 in one go, and it looks like the bull market is returning. But I have to be honest—if you only cheer for BTC's gains, you might really be caught up in a trap.

I monitor the market every day, and my feeling over the past month can be summed up in four words: something's not right. Why? Because this round of rally doesn't resemble a typical bull market at all; instead, it looks more like a strong rebound in a bear market, and it’s very likely to falter by the end of January.

Want to know why I say that? It's simple—just look at three signs.

**Issue 1: Only the leader is performing solo**

The truth behind this rally is actually quite painful—only BTC is rising, while other mainstream coins are being left behind. Two data points are undeniable:

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has been weakening. Despite this rebound lasting over a month, this ratio is still falling. What does that mean? Capital isn't flowing into Ethereum or altcoins. The so-called "altcoin season" is nowhere to be seen.

Next, look at the strength ranking among coins: BTC is the strongest, ETH is second, followed by SOL, ZEC, XRP, and others. Interestingly, these coins can't outperform the overall market during rebounds. When the market slightly pulls back, they fall harder than others. This clearly indicates one thing—funds are only short-term trading or hedging within BTC, and there's no real sector rotation or broad upward movement that a genuine bull market should have.

When only the leader is rising and everything else is flatlining, you have to ask yourself: Is this really a bull market, or is it a carefully crafted trap to lure investors?

**Issue 2: A key time checkpoint at the end of January**

There's a critical window that many have overlooked—the upcoming policy window related to US cryptocurrency regulations. This could completely change the current situation.

BTC-2,54%

ETH-2,91%

SOL-6,25%

ZEC-9,63%

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FlashLoanKing

· 3h ago

I'm already tired of this pump-and-dump routine. What's the point of BTC partying alone? Can a real bull market be this quiet?

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ChainSherlockGirl

· 8h ago

Well... there is some truth to what you're saying, but I care more about the recent movements of those big wallet addresses. I've already been monitoring the ETH/BTC weakening signal. If you ask me, this is just a trap to lure in buyers. We'll see the real move after the policy is implemented at the end of January. Altcoin season? Uh, never mind. Right now, it just looks like a joke. Whenever the market slightly trembles, those small coins immediately plunge, and the funds have long been secretly flowing out. This rebound feels a bit strange, almost like an opportunity for certain people to offload their holdings.

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BottomMisser

· 8h ago

The possibility of a trap is indeed high, but can't we still have another round of hype before the policy "big boot" lands at the end of January?

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FomoAnxiety

· 8h ago

Damn, it's the same old story. When BTC soars, everyone calls it a bull market. Now that it's fallen, they're talking about trap setups. I'm really fed up.

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DegenTherapist

· 8h ago

It's the same old argument of "Only BTC is rising while other coins are lying flat"... To be honest, this time I actually agree with you; something definitely feels off. But I have a hard time believing the point at the end of January. What can a policy window change? Shanzhai season? Haha, stop it. My altbag is almost green to the core. Is it a trap for more money or a real bull market? You'll know by the end of January. Anyway, I didn't dare to add to my positions. The ETH/BTC ratio has been falling continuously—it's just incredible. It really feels like no one is optimistic about Ethereum anymore. Bro, your analysis makes some sense, but don’t be so absolute. Who knows how policy changes will turn out? Are they just holding us in suspense? Or should we just quickly dump everything in a sharp decline?

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failed_dev_successful_ape

· 8h ago

It's a bit of an absolute statement, but the ETH/BTC ratio does look quite uncomfortable. Only BTC is thriving, while altcoins are all down, which indeed seems off. Once the policy was announced at the end of January, it’s probably going to be another fierce battle. Is it a trap to lure more buyers or a real bull? After reading this article, I feel like waiting a bit longer. Leading coins dancing alone? I’d like to see if any institutions are stirring the pot. The judgment that BTC short-term trading is a safe haven is interesting, but the policy aspect remains too uncertain.

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PebbleHander