2026-01-18 17:31:04

Keynes's old saying still holds true: the market can outlast you. Those days can be very tough, with pressure on your cash flow and your psychological defenses all collapsing first. But the market is still there, still irrational.

The same applies in reverse. Some directions are not wrong; in fact, they are proven to be correct, but no one is willing to buy in. It often takes several years for the market to catch up. Good trends require time to incubate; there are no shortcuts.

Therefore, whether an investment wins or loses, guessing blindly is not that important. The key lies in when you take action—hitting the right rhythm is the breaking point. Even if you judge correctly but enter late, you still lose. If your judgment is not comprehensive but you hit the optimal timing, you might actually do well. Timing is always the hardest part.

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OldLeekConfession

· 6h ago

That's right, I fell for this before. The judgment was correct; I just entered two years early and was literally roasted until my mentality exploded.

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MevShadowranger

· 6h ago

Oh wow, the timing was really perfect... If you get it right, you still get hit. --- That's why I never dare to go all in; if my mindset explodes first, the performance is gone. --- You're right, but I just want to ask how to hit that exact point... --- Things I was optimistic about a few years ago still haven't moved, I'm going crazy. --- I believe in the market's irrationality, but the key is that I'm not that rational myself. --- So in the end, it's still up to luck? I don't believe in that. --- Timing the market is too difficult; it's better to just dollar-cost average and relax. --- This paragraph really hit me... Money isn't the problem; not being able to endure is.

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DefiOldTrickster

· 6h ago

Ha, you're right. I was optimistic about Layer 2 back in 2018, but it didn't take off until 2021. During that time, I lost count of how many times my mindset was shattered. Cash flow dried up, my wife called me an idiot, but in the end, I stuck it out and finally reaped the rewards. Timing is all about building mental resilience.

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NftDeepBreather

· 6h ago

Timing is really incredible. I've seen too many cases where the judgment was correct but still resulted in losses. If I had known earlier, I would have gone all in on that wave, but unfortunately, my insight is still a bit lacking. The market can indeed drain your mentality; there's no doubt about that.

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MemeEchoer

· 6h ago

Timing really can mess with your mindset... Even in the right direction, you have to hit the exact moment; missing by a second is not acceptable.

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SchrodingerPrivateKey

· 6h ago

Really, when it comes to timing, it's all tears to talk about, just lonely The phrase "cash flow first collapses" really hits home, what's the point The feeling that no one is taking over the good direction... that's how I was worn out The most critical point about timing is no lie, better to enter late than early I've seen too many guys whose correct judgments ended up costing them dearly

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ThesisInvestor

· 6h ago

This is the苦 I've been enduring all along. I was right in my judgment but just couldn't wait for that moment.

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