I have been navigating the crypto world for years, and my biggest takeaway is: there’s no shortage of stories about overnight riches, but what’s missing are traders who can survive long enough.

**Mindset Determines Life or Death**

Back in 2018 when I first entered the scene, the thrill of tripling my investment in a day made me feel invincible, thinking I was the chosen one. But a sharp correction cut my gains in half, dropping me from heaven to hell in just 72 hours. I later realized that profits are just market’s generosity; what truly saves you is risk management awareness.

Look at those who make money— their skills aren’t necessarily superior, the key is emotional control. During a bull market, don’t be greedy; during a bear market, don’t panic. When the 25-day moving average breaks, cut your losses decisively; when it breaks through a key resistance level, dare to follow—this execution ability is more valuable than any complex trading system.

The biggest danger is the "gambler’s mentality": losing money and wanting to make it back, making profits and wanting to double them. I’ve fallen into this trap myself, with my account riding a roller coaster every day, exhausting. Now I’ve changed: when floating profits reach 10%, I withdraw the principal first; the remaining is profit to roll over. The market always offers opportunities, but your principal only has one shot.

**Volume-Price Relationship Is the Core**

Retail traders are most easily trapped by the "technical analysis illusion"—studying golden crosses and death crosses, studying divergences, but in the end, missing the simplest and most effective thing: the volume-price relationship.

A volume breakout above previous highs is the clearest sign of initiation. For example, a coin consolidates sideways for three months, then suddenly doubles its volume and breaks through the consolidation platform—most likely, it’s about to launch. But here’s a detail—chasing the rally is fine, but never chase the high; wait for it to retest the 5-day moving average, that’s the real buy point.

Conversely, shrinking volume during a decline is the most dangerous. Price is shrinking, volume is shrinking—indicating no more funds are willing to buy in, and a sudden flash crash could happen later. Some say this is "shakeout," don’t believe it. True shakeouts involve rapid sharp declines followed by quick rebounds, not slow, prolonged declines.

**How to Identify the True Bottom**

A single large bullish candle signaling a bottom? Mostly a trap. The real bottom looks like this: first, sideways consolidation with shrinking volume; then, gentle volume increase; next, all moving averages gradually converge; finally, a strong breakout. In 2023, Bitcoin was consolidating around 16,000, following this pattern, and then it surged significantly afterward.