When the Fed holds steady without tightening and the economy avoids recession during midterm years, historical data shows equity markets tend to deliver solid returns averaging 10.6%. This stable policy environment—neither aggressive rate hikes nor economic contraction—creates favorable conditions for risk assets. Understanding these macro cycles helps investors anticipate market behavior during different Fed regimes and economic phases.
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GasFeeCrier
· 11h ago
Hmm... In the year of the midterm elections, the Fed didn't take action, the economy didn't collapse, and the stock market just steadily rose by 10.6%? That data sounds a bit too perfect.
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StableNomad
· 11h ago
10.6% avg sounds nice on paper, but statistically speaking—back in the LUNA days we also had "stable conditions" right before everything went sideways. not financial advice but the correlation coefficient between "theoretically stable" and actual outcomes? pretty loose lol
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LiquidationWatcher
· 11h ago
Whoa, is this data real? An average return of 10.6%... Then why am I still losing money?
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MevHunter
· 12h ago
Hmm... so during midterm election years, not raising interest rates guarantees a 10.6% return? That sounds too perfect. Could this be another case where historical patterns fail?
When the Fed holds steady without tightening and the economy avoids recession during midterm years, historical data shows equity markets tend to deliver solid returns averaging 10.6%. This stable policy environment—neither aggressive rate hikes nor economic contraction—creates favorable conditions for risk assets. Understanding these macro cycles helps investors anticipate market behavior during different Fed regimes and economic phases.