Is prediction markets truly financial innovation or just an upgraded form of gambling? The seemingly sophisticated probability pricing is actually quite fragile—the entire ecosystem relies on subsidies to survive, liquidity is monopolized by market makers, and only major events attract participation. What's even more disheartening is that most trading activity occurs during the quick settlement window, market depth is like paper, and price volatility is becoming increasingly wild. This is not a healthy financial market; frankly, it's just a disguised casino. Although Vitalik and others have been advocating for the ideal prospects of prediction markets, the mechanism design itself still cannot avoid the essence of speculation.