My latest move: shorting a US military strike on Iran through Jan 31 on a prediction platform.

Here's the thesis: Trump had the military options on the table, but ultimately decided against escalation. Several factors are pushing back hard on this scenario. First, regional allies in the Gulf are making noise—they're genuinely worried about retaliation strikes hitting their bases and energy infrastructure. Second, intelligence assessments suggest limited strikes won't achieve strategic goals; they won't destabilize the regime or shift the broader situation meaningfully.

So the bet is simple: cooler heads prevail. The administration weighs the downside risks—economic, military, diplomatic—and opts for restraint over action. It's a call on de-escalation logic overriding military momentum.