ETH Bullish Alert: Falling below $3198 will trigger $895 million in liquidations

According to the latest data, Ethereum is in a delicate position. The current price of $3,359.76 appears stable, but the liquidation chart reveals risks that warrant attention. If ETH drops below $3,198, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $8.95 billion. In contrast, breaking above $3,496 would result in short liquidation strength of only $473 million. This asymmetric liquidation distribution reflects that current bullish pressure is significantly greater than bearish pressure.

The True Face of Liquidation Risks

Long vs. Short Liquidation Strength Comparison

According to Coinglass data, ETH faces a clearly asymmetric liquidation risk:

From the data, the long liquidation strength is nearly twice that of shorts, indicating downward risks could trigger more intense liquidations.

What Does Liquidation Strength Mean

It’s important to understand that liquidation strength is not an exact count of contracts pending liquidation but an indicator of the liquidity impact when prices reach certain levels. Higher liquidation bars imply that when prices hit those points, concentrated stop-losses and forced liquidations will cause stronger price volatility.

In other words, $8.95 billion in long liquidation strength suggests that if ETH falls below $3,198, it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, further accelerating the decline.

Current Price and Risk Distance

ETH’s current price of $3,359.76 has about $161 of buffer before reaching the long liquidation risk point at $3,198, representing roughly a 4.8% drop. While this distance may seem not very close, in the volatile crypto market, it is not out of reach.

Looking at recent performance, ETH has gained 1.26% in the past 24 hours and 7.65% over the past week, indicating market volatility is not low. Once a downtrend is triggered, this buffer could be quickly consumed.

Another Signal of Market Sentiment

Related data further confirms the market’s risk sentiment. According to the latest statistics, ETH experienced a net outflow of $182 million in the past 24 hours, making it one of the most outflowed assets during that period. Continued withdrawals suggest holders are reducing their exchange exposure, typically reflecting caution about short-term price movements.

Meanwhile, Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for three consecutive days, indicating significant selling pressure on major US exchanges and a decline in investor risk appetite. Although this data pertains to BTC, the market sentiment it reflects is also relevant for ETH.

Key Observations

From the perspective of the liquidation chart, ETH’s current risk structure has the following features:

• Bullish pressure is clearly greater than bearish, and a downward break could trigger a stronger cascade of liquidations
• Resistance to upward breakout is relatively weak, but short risk points are farther away
• The 3200-3500 range is a critical zone of contention

Summary

ETH currently faces asymmetric liquidation risks, with bullish pressure significantly outweighing bearish. While $8.95 billion in long liquidation strength sounds enormous, it is not an absolute determinant within overall market liquidity. The real concern is whether falling below $3,198 will trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. Combining recent fund outflows and market sentiment data, maintaining caution in the short term is a prudent choice. The key is to observe whether ETH can hold above the $3300 support, which will determine if the bulls’ defense remains solid.