2026-01-18 19:38:30

Bitcoin's roughly 20% surge since late November has climbed closer to the $101K annual moving average, yet market data suggests this remains merely a bear market bounce rather than trend reversal.

The demand picture tells a sobering story: spot market absorption declined 67K BTC over the past 30 days, while US spot ETFs saw net outflows of 54K BTC. More concerning, exchange inflows jumped to 39K BTC weekly—a classic bearish signal indicating sellers preparing to exit positions.

With spot demand contracting significantly and institutional investors trimming exposure, the underlying weakness persists despite the headline rally. Short-term price strength masks deteriorating market fundamentals, keeping BTC in distribution phase rather than accumulation.

BTC-2,58%

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MEVHunterX

· 4h ago

Getting excited over a 20% rebound? Wake up, institutions are dumping their holdings.

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GasFeeBarbecue

· 4h ago

A rebound is a rebound, but the institutions have already run away. Looking at this data, it's clear that the bears are still causing trouble.

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WhaleStalker

· 4h ago

Uh, just by looking at this data, it's clear it's a rebound, not a reversal. The institutions have already seen through it and are running early.

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BoredRiceBall

· 4h ago

The rapid increase is actually more dangerous now; institutions are all fleeing. Don't be fooled by the 20% surge.

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AllTalkLongTrader

· 4h ago

Excited about a 20% increase? Wake up, institutions are fleeing.

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HypotheticalLiquidator

· 4h ago

Rising 20% and then starting to hype? What I see is that 39K BTC flowed into exchanges within the week, which is a death signal... Institutions are quietly offloading, and you guys are still celebrating. --- The data is right here: 54K net outflow from spot ETFs, spot absorption decreased by 67K... This isn't a rebound, it's a false prosperity before a sell-off, a typical distribution phase. --- 101K moving average? Uh... let's first look at the borrowing rate, the liquidation price has already been warning you about the risk. --- During the week when exchanges received 39K BTC, smart money should have already left. The rest are just bagholders... --- Basically, the whales are offloading, retail investors are chasing the rally. The dominoes of systemic risk have long been set up.

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SerumSqueezer