The current market is a mixed situation of bulls and bears.

From the US dollar perspective, things are actually quite good. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has risen back to $6.58 trillion, the TGA account released a one-time liquidity of $777 billion, overnight repos have stopped, and the SOFR remains steady at 3.66%, indicating that short-term funding is not tight but also not overly loose. The US dollar index has slightly declined to 99.37, the 10-year US Treasury real yield has returned to 1.34%, and inflation expectations have jumped to 2.26%. This combination of "rising inflation and falling real yields" is somewhat bullish for risk assets in the short term.

However, geopolitical tensions are a bit unsettling. Nationwide protests in Iran have been suppressed, and the probability of military conflict between the US and Iran still exists. Although Polymarket's prediction shows a probability of less than 50% by the end of the month, the risk is always there. Plus, the Trump administration is preparing to impose additional tariffs on Iran's oil imports and is also involved in sovereignty disputes over Greenland. If the Supreme Court grants the president emergency powers, market volatility could spike at any moment.

Looking at the crypto sector, Bitcoin has now broken through the key resistance level of $94,500. Whether it can hold above the 50-week moving average ($101,500) is crucial. Holding above would open up upward space, while failing to do so could lead to a retest of the $85,000 support level. Spot ETF weekly net inflows reached $1.42 billion, Coinbase's balance is increasing, but Binance has been experiencing outflows, reflecting ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market. The derivatives market is becoming more active, with open interest in CME Bitcoin futures on the rise.