AVAX presents a quite noteworthy shorting opportunity on the 4-hour chart. From a technical perspective, this signal is rated S+ level, with an approximate success probability of 55%.

**Core Entry Logic**

The current key resistance level is around 13.71816, with a strength of 65%, having been tested 38 times. A position control of about 0.9% is recommended for stability.

If choosing to enter, set the stop-loss at 14.01924, keeping the risk within 2.19%—a quite tight stop-loss setup.

**Tiered Take Profit Strategy**

There are three clear targets from entry to profit. The first target is 13.26656, with a risk-reward ratio of 1.5:1. If the market continues to weaken, the second target at 13.55549 offers a 2.5:1 return. The most aggressive traders can aim for the third target at 12.51388, with a risk-reward ratio reaching 4.0:1.

**Technical Support**

The upper band of the moving regression channel is at 14.56154, and the lower band is at 13.18525. Interestingly, the Fibonacci 0.618 level is exactly at 14.03580, forming a good technical resonance with the resistance level above.

From a market structure perspective, the current state is shrinking volume, with a main volume ratio of only 0.6x, and the price performance is stable. The buy-sell ratio of 0.88:1 indicates some selling pressure. Although the long-short ratio of 1.92:1 suggests bullish sentiment, the trend is declining—this is a potential reversal signal.

**Key Reminders**

ADX strength is 35.5, indicating a ranging market, which is why only signals rated S level or above are worth paying attention to. The signal's validity period is 480 minutes, making the time window relatively tight.

The crypto market is always full of variables. Strict money management and decisive stop-loss execution are essential for long-term survival. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.