Dear friends, it is now 3:30 AM on January 19th, and we continue to monitor the ETH/USDT pair.

Our recent analysis approach remains unchanged, maintaining a neutral to slightly bullish outlook. Since early morning, the price has been oscillating within a narrow range of 3340 to 3368, seemingly consolidating and gathering strength, with both bulls and bears waiting for a clear directional move.

From a technical perspective, the daily trend remains healthy. The ADX reading is 43.7, indicating a strong trend, with the bulls in control (+DI at 28.1 clearly surpassing -DI at 11.0). On the volume side, the OBV positive divergence reaches +17.8%, and the CMF is at 0.162, both signaling accumulation supporting the bullish case. The 4-hour chart also shows ADX rising to 30.1, confirming the bullish setup. The only concern is the 1-hour MFI soaring to 80, indicating overbought conditions and short-term correction pressure. When combining signals across all timeframes, the bullish trend consistency score is 78.1%, which is quite convincing.

However, technical signals alone are not enough. Liquidity distribution across exchanges warrants caution. Data from across the network shows that sell orders dominate (69.2%), while buy orders are only 30.8%. These sell orders are highly concentrated on major exchanges (98% sell volume) and large platforms (91% sell volume). On the surface, it appears that large funds are pressing down with significant sell orders, but the actual trading direction may differ. To understand the market trend, one must consider both price movements and real fund flows; relying solely on order book data can be misleading.

Regarding price levels and fund flow, ETH is currently in the mid-to-upper range across multiple timeframes, far from extreme highs. The daily price is about 9.56% below VWAP, indicating room for long-term support levels to be tested. On the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, prices are above VWAP, giving the bulls a clear short-term advantage. The market's fear-and-greed index is at 49, indicating neutral sentiment. It’s important to note that today is a major event day with high risk, so it’s advisable to operate with small positions or stay on the sidelines.

From a trading strategy perspective, although the overall trend is upward, the short-term overbought conditions and event risks warrant caution. Avoid chasing highs; wait for a pullback to key support levels before considering entering. The first support is around 3308 (1-hour moving average), with a stronger support at 3286 (Fibonacci 78.6%). The first resistance is at 3381; if broken, the next target is 3411. It’s recommended to reduce positions by half, keeping exposure within 10-15%.

Let’s review the specific levels and operational details again. The current price is 3351, right at the upper edge of this consolidation zone. Support levels from top to bottom: 3308.83 (Pivot S1), then 3309.71 (1-hour MA50), and 3286.76 (Fibonacci 78.6%). Resistance levels: 3381.31 (Pivot R1) as the first, with strong resistance at 3411.31. If the price stabilizes above 3350 and breaks through 3381 with volume, a new upward wave could begin, targeting 3450-3500. Conversely, if it falls below support at 3308, it may retest 3286 or even deeper at 3236 (daily MA200). From a liquidity perspective, although sell orders are abundant, fund inflows (OBV and CMF are positive) suggest buyers are quietly absorbing, so the market may not be as pessimistic as it seems. Operational suggestion: consider a light long position around 3310-3320 with strict stop-loss below 3280.

Markets tend to use oscillation to test patience before a decisive move. The real trend often only becomes clear after the dust settles from major events. My advice is to stay patient and wait for clear signals before acting, rather than frequently trading within the sideways range.

【Key Position Summary】
Long Position
Stop-loss: 3280 USDT
Support levels: 3308 / 3286 / 3236 USDT
Resistance levels: 3381 / 3411 / 3450 USDT
Take profit: 3410 USDT

⚠️ The current trend strength is moderate. Please closely monitor price movements and consider taking profits early if encountering resistance.

⚠️ Risk Warning: This analysis is based on technical algorithms and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously according to your own risk tolerance.