How will macro data reshape cryptocurrency market pricing after political uncertainty diminishes?

【Blockchain Rhythm】This week, the key to the crypto market is the phased easing of political risks. Previously, Trump’s pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Powell quickly cooled amid opposition in the Senate and within the party, and the market generally believes that the related actions are unlikely to have substantial consequences. What does this mean? Political noise is retreating, and macro fundamentals are regaining the voice.

From the data perspective, the latest CPI did not exceed market expectations, with core inflation stable at 2.6%. In the short term, this has not added new pressure on liquidity and risk assets, and the external environment for cryptocurrencies is relatively friendly. But this is only superficial; the real turning point lies in the subsequent data re-pricing the rate cut path.

Core PCE, initial PMI, and revised GDP—these data points will be the focus of next week’s market. If inflation remains sticky and the economy shows resilience, expectations for rate cuts are likely to be pushed further back. Who is most affected? High-beta altcoins will face considerable pressure. And Bitcoin? It is more likely to oscillate within a high range rather than experience a unilateral decline.

Geopolitics should not be completely ignored either. Although the Iran situation has temporarily eased, the deployment of US aircraft carriers in the Middle East indicates that risk premiums have not fully dissipated. Energy prices still have the potential to influence inflation expectations, and this variable needs ongoing attention.

Overall judgment: The crypto market is currently in a transitional phase of “macro support and data disturbance.” This is not the start of a new trend but more like a switching period for mid-term re-pricing. The market is waiting, waiting for those key economic data to tell everyone how long the story of rate cuts can continue.