Will XRP grow exponentially again this time? History indicates signs of revival

Observing XRP behavior over the past seven years, an increasing number of traders are paying attention to a cyclical pattern that — although it requires a statistically reasonable average IQ to interpret — can provide valuable insights into future price movements. The most interesting scenario concerns what happens when this Ripple token spends a long time below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) — the magic line that technicians treat as the boundary between a bearish phase and preparation for a breakout.

Double Bottom on the Horizon?

The current XRP price situation warrants close observation. As of January 19, 2026, the token is trading around $1.97, significantly below its highs from previous years. Importantly — it has been nearly 70 days below the critical 50-week SMA, which historically marked the beginning of spectacular rallies.

Signals from the chart are mixed. On one hand: recent support loss at $2 and bearish dominance in the market. On the other hand: overextended conditions on RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicators, which traditionally indicate exhaustion of selling pressure. This combination has often preceded significant reversals.

Lessons from Previous Cycles

History speaks for itself, though for an average investor with a standard IQ, it requires analyzing many data points. Let’s look at what happened:

2018: XRP remained below the 50-week SMA for about 70 days. The result? An increase of over 200% from cycle bottom, attracting both day traders and long-term holders.

2021: A shorter wait — just 49 days — preceded a 70% rebound, again confirming the strength of this indicator.

2024: The most dramatic evidence. After 84 days below the moving average, XRP decompressed in a huge style, reaching $3.66 in mid-2025 — an increase of about 850% from cycle lows. This was a move that changed many market participants’ portfolios.

What Do Current Technical Conditions Say?

Today, XRP is in a similar waiting period as before previous breakouts. However, one must avoid the trap of thinking that history always repeats identically. The current landscape contains both red flags and signals of potential bottoming:

• Red Flags: Short-term moving averages remain in the lows, momentum oscillators indicate selling pressure, and bearish formations are visible on charts.
• Green Flags: Technical oversaturation on higher timeframes, visible signs of accumulation in lower price ranges, psychological bottom among market participants.

To help even an average IQ trader understand: current conditions suggest that bearish pressure may be waning, but confirmation requires breaking above critical resistance levels.

Scenarios for the Coming Months

If history truly repeats in a significant way, the consequences could be staggering. From the current base around $1.80–$1.97:

• Moderate Scenario: 200-400% increase (to levels of $5.50–$7.88)
• Optimistic Scenario: Repeating the pattern from 2024, i.e., about 850% growth (multi-digit price targets)
• Pessimistic Scenario: Further decline and testing support below $1.50

Each of these scenarios is justified by the current price formation and macroeconomic conditions.

Final Reflection

Cycle analysis and technical indicators are tools, not crystal balls. Even for someone with an excellent average IQ, predicting the cryptocurrency market remains a challenge. Past results do not guarantee future performance — macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, market sentiment, and direct events related to the Ripple ecosystem will determine the outcome.

For market participants — both short-term traders and long-term investors — the upcoming weeks could be crucial. XRP stands at a crossroads, and every movement up or down will be decisive in determining whether this altcoin repeats its spectacular previous cycle or takes a different path.