Let's talk about the market trend

Driven by the news of Trump’s tariff war and the Fed’s rate cut expectations significantly shrinking, $BTC suddenly broke below the key support level of 94,700, returning to the previous consolidation range.

The bottom of this range is around 80,000, so if the second wave of sharp decline begins, the current target is first at 80,000.

In the past month and a half, I repeatedly said that before the second major bear market crash, there would be a rebound to 98,000. On January 15th, it reached 97,925, which is basically close enough.

Although it didn’t reach a higher level, from a big bear market perspective, running up to 98,000 is quite reasonable.

Unless this week’s BTC weekly chart strongly recovers above 95,000, the second wave of the bear market decline will be confirmed.

At that point, we will officially enter the value investing track, and there will be no need to analyze short-term technicals.

The bottom is still near the shutdown price of miners, around the 55,000-60,000 range. If one insists on seeking a precise bottom, based on 2022’s ratios, in an extreme case, it could fall to around 48,000, but I think that’s unlikely.

Considering that multiple governments and numerous treasury companies are accumulating Bitcoin, a bottom around 60,000 to 70,000 is also reasonable.

AHR999 has not failed yet; at most, it shows signs of stagnation at the bottom.

When AHR999 drops to 0.45, I will go all-in for a bottom-fishing.