One of the most uncomfortable things in the community is watching project teams frequently unlock large amounts of tokens. Walrus is no exception—3.5 billion WAL tokens held by investors, valued at about $49 million, are set to unlock starting March 27. With more than two months to go, the market is already getting restless. The recent price movements of WAL also hint at this—down 13.95% in 24 hours, and down 10.86% over the past week—many are discussing whether the market is already digesting the unlocking expectations in advance.

But after examining the data carefully, I think there's no need to be so pessimistic. Unlocking does require attention, but it isn't necessarily an absolute bad thing. The key is to look at a few critical indicators.

**How is the unlocking scale?**

3.5 billion tokens out of a total supply of 50 billion represent 7%. When distributed over the current circulating supply of 15.77 billion, that’s about 22.2%. It sounds like a lot, but don’t rush to conclusions. The truly concerning scenario is projects that unlock all at once, doubling the circulating supply—that would be disastrous. Walrus’s unlocking method is relatively moderate—investors must first pass a 12-month cliff period before unlocking begins, followed by linear releases, with a relatively steady pace.

**Will investors dump their holdings?**

Walrus raised $140 million in its March 2025 funding round, led by top-tier firms like a16z. Based on the valuation at that time, the investors’ entry cost was roughly between $0.15 and $0.20 per token. Currently, WAL is trading at about $0.138, which is close to the cost basis. From another perspective, if there’s a large-scale sell-off near the cost price, investors would be losing money. The more rational approach would be to gradually reduce holdings in batches or simply hold onto their tokens for better prices. This strategy is much more reliable than blindly dumping.

**Can the market absorb this amount?**

This is another important consideration. WAL’s recent 24-hour trading volume is around $1.85 million. To absorb the 3.5 billion tokens unlocking, market liquidity is indeed a constraint. However, if the unlock proceeds as planned in a linear fashion, the pressure will be significantly alleviated. Moreover, as the project develops and attention increases, trading volume may also improve.