2024 Global Natural Gas Market: Which Countries Dominate Energy Supply?

Natural gas remains a cornerstone of global energy infrastructure despite the worldwide shift toward renewable sources. Understanding which nations lead production is essential for energy investors and market participants seeking exposure to this volatile sector.

Global Market Overview: Production Trends and Shifts

In 2023, worldwide natural gas output reached 4.05 trillion cubic meters, marking a modest increase from 4.04 trillion cubic meters in 2022. The Energy Institute notes this represents relatively flat growth, masking significant regional divergences. The US ramped up output by 4.2 percent year-over-year, while Russia’s production declined 5.2 percent amid geopolitical tensions and reduced European exports.

Global demand expanded by just 0.5 percent during the same period. China’s post-pandemic recovery positioned it as the world’s largest LNG importer, posting a 7.2 percent surge in natural gas consumption. Conversely, Europe contracted sharply—a 6.9 percent drop marked the lowest consumption since 1994—driven by renewable energy expansion and nuclear availability.

The supply-demand imbalance triggered strategic repositioning among major producers and importers, reshaping traditional energy partnerships and creating new market dynamics across Asia, Europe, and North America.

United States: Maintaining Dominance with 1.35 Trillion Cubic Meters

The US stands as the uncontested global leader, supplying nearly one-quarter of worldwide production. Advanced extraction techniques—horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing—combined with coal cost pressures enabled output to climb over 350 billion cubic meters this past decade.

Appalachia contributed 29 percent of 2023 US production, though pipeline constraints have capped growth potential. The nation also ranks as the world’s largest LNG exporter; first-half 2024 exports reached 4.42 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 3.3 percent year-over-year increase. The US Energy Information Administration projects continued production gains through 2050, driven by international LNG demand and steady domestic consumption.

Domestically, natural gas powers heating systems and electricity generation, with 2023 demand totaling 886.5 billion cubic meters.

Russia: 586.4 Billion Cubic Meters Amid Energy Reorientation

As the second-largest producer and holder of the world’s largest proven reserves (via Gazprom’s 16.3 percent global share), Russia faces pivotal market shifts. Production plummeted 41 percent in export revenues during the first three quarters of 2023 due to European demand destruction.

Yet the country pivots eastward. Russia signed a landmark long-term gas supply agreement with Iran in early October, committing 109 billion cubic meters annually—a deal designed to bolster regional capacity and counter Western sanctions. Chinese and Indian offtake agreements similarly stabilize Moscow’s export profile despite European isolation.

Gas transit through Ukraine—which totaled 1.26 billion cubic meters in September 2024—faces termination at year-end 2024, potentially disrupting EU supply chains and further fragmenting global natural gas flows.

Emerging and Established Producers: Iran, China, Canada, and Beyond

Iran produces 251.7 billion cubic meters, ranking third globally. The nation has tripled output over ten years and shares the world’s largest gas field with Qatar. Iran targets 30 percent capacity expansion within five years backed by $80 billion investment, though Qatar’s North Dome expansion complicates regional production strategies.

China, despite generating a record 234.3 billion cubic meters in 2023, still imports roughly half its supply. Production surged 92.3 percent since 2013 as the government incentivized coal-to-gas switching. Unconventional sources—shale, coal-bed methane—now account for 43 percent of output. Strategic underground storage expansion ahead of winter signals preparation for peak demand volatility.

Canada produces 190.3 billion cubic meters, relying entirely on pipeline exports to the US (which received 99 percent of its 2022 imports from Canada). The LNG Canada project, 95 percent complete by mid-September, promises mid-2025 first shipments to Asian markets, positioning Canada as an emerging LNG exporter.

Qatar ranks sixth with 181 billion cubic meters and holds the third-largest proven reserves. The 2024 North Field expansion aims for 142 million metric tons annual capacity by 2030, adding 16 million metric tons of LNG annually and competing directly with Russian shipments.

Australia (151.7 billion cubic meters) operates the world’s second-largest LNG export capacity. However, major fields like Santos’ Bayu-Undan face depletion, threatening east coast supply by 2028 without new development. The government’s Future Gas Strategy emphasizes security and net-zero alignment.

Norway (116.6 billion cubic meters) supplanted Russia as Europe’s primary gas vendor, accounting for 30.3 percent of EU supply in 2023. The government greenlit 19 extraction projects in mid-2023 and offered 37 new blocks in May 2024, though output is projected to contract 1.6 percent in 2025 to 121 billion cubic meters.

Saudi Arabia (114.1 billion cubic meters) increased output via standalone well development. The nation plans export initiation by 2030 following Jafurah field expansion. Aramco awarded $12.6 billion in July 2024 contracts to accelerate production and support Europe’s diversification away from Russian supplies.

Algeria completes the top-ten, producing 101.5 billion cubic meters in 2023. The nation exports fifth-largest LNG volumes globally, with 85 percent of 2022 exports destined for Europe. Italy inked an agreement to boost Algerian imports, while late-May deals with ExxonMobil and Baker Hughes target production increases and European export growth.

Investment Implications and Market Outlook

Natural gas investment hinges on understanding production capacity, reserve bases, and geopolitical risk. The US-led LNG export surge, combined with Asian import demand growth and European supply diversification, creates multi-directional flow patterns. Emerging economies increasingly influence pricing dynamics traditionally dominated by Atlantic Basin producers.

Pipeline infrastructure limitations in North America and depletion pressures in Australia represent near-term supply constraints. Meanwhile, strategic reserves stockpiling—particularly in China—and sanctions-induced trade reorientation reshape traditional supplier relationships, favoring producers with geographic and political flexibility.

Energy transition narratives should not obscure natural gas’s continued centrality to global power generation and industrial feedstock supply. Investor positioning accordingly requires monitoring production trends, reserve replacements, LNG capacity rollouts, and policy signals from major consuming regions.