Japan Moves Forward with Deep-Sea Mining Initiative to Secure Rare Earth Supply

Japan is stepping up efforts to break free from heavy dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies by launching a critical deep-sea mining operation. Beginning January 11 through mid-February, the government-backed initiative will conduct extensive trials in waters near Minamitori Island, situated approximately 1,900 kilometers southeast of Tokyo. This represents a watershed moment for the nation’s resource security strategy.

The Supply Chain Crisis Driving Urgent Action

The timing of Japan’s deep-sea mining news reflects mounting concerns about mineral supply vulnerabilities. China’s stranglehold on the global rare earth market is staggering: the country controls roughly 70 percent of worldwide production and commands over 90 percent of refining capacity. Japan, despite diversification initiatives over the past decade, still sources some 60 percent of its rare-earth imports directly from China and faces near-total reliance on Beijing for heavy rare earth elements critical to advanced manufacturing.

Recent signals from Beijing have amplified these risks. China announced fresh export restrictions on dual-use items with potential military applications—a category broad enough to encompass select rare earth materials. This echoes the 2010 incident when China halted rare earth shipments to Japan during territorial tensions, a disruption that forced manufacturers to halt production and prompted Tokyo to fundamentally rethink supply resilience.

Economic Stakes and Trial Scope

The potential costs of future disruption are staggering. Japanese government analysis suggests that a three-month interruption in rare earth supplies would exceed $4 billion in economic damage to domestic industry. A complete one-year halt could reduce annual GDP by nearly half a percentage point—a significant macroeconomic shock for the world’s third-largest economy.

The current experimental phase aims to validate extraction technology capable of retrieving 350 metric tons of sediment daily while simultaneously assessing environmental conditions both on the seafloor and aboard the research vessel. Success in this phase could unlock larger-scale operations within the next year, according to Tokyo officials.

Building an Integrated Supply Chain

Japan’s ambitions extend well beyond trial operations. The country is collaborating with the United States on mining and supply chain development within the Minamitori Island waters, part of a coordinated approach to building critical mineral resilience. This partnership builds on commitments made between the two nations to strengthen shared supply security.

By 2027, Japan plans to complete construction of a dedicated processing facility on Minamitorishima designed specifically to handle seafloor-derived rare earth mud. The Strategic Innovation Promotion Program is overseeing this effort, with a full-scale demonstration planned for February 2027 to validate the facility’s capacity to process 350 metric tons of rare-earth mud daily. According to Shoichi Ishii, the program’s director, the demonstration will encompass the complete extraction pipeline and determine whether marine-based rare earth recovery is economically sustainable long-term.

Environmental Concerns Remain Unresolved

Marine scientists and environmental advocates continue to flag potential ecosystem damage from deep-sea mining operations, particularly given how little remains known about deep-sea ecosystems. Despite these warnings, competitive pressures for critical minerals are driving multiple countries forward with exploratory deep-sea mining programs. Japan’s push represents part of a broader global recalibration of resource extraction strategies amid intensifying mineral competition.