D-Wave Stock in 2026: Can the Quantum Wave Cap Rally Last?

The 211% Surge That Raised Red Flags

D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) delivered a jaw-dropping 211% return in 2025, crushing benchmarks like the S&P 500 and the Magnificent Seven. But here’s where it gets tricky – spectacular gains don’t always signal healthy fundamentals. Investors chasing this quantum computing darling should pump the brakes and examine what’s really driving the momentum.

What’s Under the Hood?

D-Wave designs quantum computers using annealing technology, which harnesses superconducting qubits to find optimal solutions for complex problems. Think of it as a specialized tool for tasks like supply chain optimization, scheduling, manufacturing logistics, and portfolio analysis. It sounds impressive on paper, and the applications do seem broad. But broad potential and commercial reality are two very different animals.

The Valuation Red Alert

This is where the story gets sobering. D-Wave’s stock price of $28 might seem bargain-basement to casual investors, but valuation metrics tell a darker tale. The company is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 342 – a staggering multiple that echoes the irrational exuberance of the dot-com era.

To put that in perspective: during the late 1990s internet boom, investors threw billions at companies with minimal revenue or profit, betting purely on narrative rather than fundamentals. We all know how that ended.

Learning from History: The Cisco Parallel

Cisco Systems was the pick-and-shovel play of the internet age. Every data center, every new network required Cisco’s infrastructure. Yet when the bubble burst and companies slashed capital spending, Cisco’s market cap plummeted 89%.

D-Wave lacks Cisco’s dominance and proven market position. If the quantum computing wave cap deflates – and enterprise adoption doesn’t materialize at scale – the downside could be even steeper. The speculative fervor supporting today’s prices could quickly reverse into panic selling.

The 2026 Reality Check

Quantum computing remains largely exploratory. Yes, it’s being tested in real scenarios, but we’re nowhere near mainstream adoption or predictable revenue streams. By late 2026, the market may finally reckon with this reality. Once the hype fades, investors could wake up to find D-Wave trading at drastically depressed levels – potentially in penny stock territory.

The Bottom Line

The quantum computing narrative is captivating, and D-Wave’s wave cap has certainly benefited from AI mania. But extrapolating 211% annual returns ignores historical lessons and ignores the company’s current valuation disconnect from reality. Before chasing this stock higher, ask yourself: Are you investing in quantum computing’s future, or gambling on continued speculative fervor? The answer to that question should determine your move.