The $840 Million Red Flag: Why Quantum Computing Insiders Are Bailing Despite the Hype

Quantum computing stocks have experienced an extraordinary bull run, but the trading patterns of company insiders paint a starkly different picture than the mainstream narrative suggests.

The Spectacular Rise That Captured Wall Street’s Attention

Throughout 2025, the quantum computing sector became Wall Street’s darling. Over a 12-month trailing period, dedicated quantum computing stocks—including IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc.—witnessed gains reaching as high as 5,400%. This meteoric ascent was fueled by strategic partnerships with industry giants and tantalizing promises about the technology’s long-term potential.

The allure extends beyond current performance. Market analysts project that quantum computing could evolve into a $1 trillion addressable market by 2035, fundamentally transforming how we solve complex computational problems. High-profile collaborations amplified investor enthusiasm: subscribers to Amazon Braket and Microsoft Quantum Azure gained access to cutting-edge quantum processors, while Comcast established a quantum lab partnership with D-Wave through intermediary Classiq to optimize broadband network performance.

JPMorgan Chase further validated sector interest when it announced a $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative, with quantum computing explicitly identified as one of 27 critical sub-areas for national economic resilience.

What Does a Quantum Computer Look Like From a Fundamental Perspective?

While the technology shows promise in theory, the underlying economics reveal cracks in the optimistic narrative. Revenue projections for these pure-play operators demonstrate explosive growth trajectories: Rigetti Computing’s sales are forecast to expand from under $8 million in 2025 to $152 million by 2029, while D-Wave’s revenues could climb from roughly $26 million to $219 million over the same period. Such growth rates would justify investor exuberance—if the current valuations made sense.

The Insider Trading Signal That Screams Caution

Here lies the troubling disconnect: corporate insiders—high-ranking executives and board members with privileged information—have become aggressive sellers rather than believers in their companies’ futures.

Form 4 filings reveal a damning pattern over the trailing three-year period through January 2026:

• IonQ: $460.8 million in net selling activity
• D-Wave Quantum: $292 million in net selling activity
• Rigetti Computing: $53.5 million in net selling activity
• Quantum Computing Inc.: $33.2 million in net selling activity

Collectively, these four organizations witnessed approximately $840 million in net insider liquidations, far exceeding any insider purchases during the same timeframe.

While it’s true that executives routinely sell shares to cover tax obligations or rebalance portfolios, the critical metric lies in buying activity. When insiders buy, it signals genuine conviction that stock prices will appreciate. Conversely, the near-total absence of insider purchases across these firms—Quantum Computing Inc. and Rigetti Computing recorded zero insider buying over three years, while D-Wave experienced only an 82-share directional purchase—suggests insiders view current valuations as unjustifiable.

The Valuation Trap Nobody Wants to Discuss

Current price-to-sales ratios for these quantum computing specialists exist in territory historically associated with speculative bubbles. Even when applying revenue forecasts from 2028 or 2029, the P/S multiples remain extraordinarily elevated relative to fundamentals. The mathematics simply don’t align with long-term sustainability.

History demonstrates that transformative technologies require years to mature. Quantum computing, despite real potential applications, remains far from delivering practical, cost-effective solutions that outperform classical computing systems. The recipe for bubble formation is unmistakable: explosive enthusiasm, parabolic valuations, insider skepticism expressed through systematic selling, and a technology still years away from mainstream utility.

As these dynamics unfold, the $840 million in insider dispositions stands as a stark cautionary marker that not everyone celebrating quantum computing stocks has conviction matching their rhetoric.