Soybean Prices Under Pressure as Multiple Headwinds Converge in Tuesday Trading

Soybean markets are experiencing notable downward pressure during Tuesday’s session, with futures contracts declining between 9 and 11 cents across major contract months. The cash bean market has reflected similar weakness, with the cmdtyView national average trading at $9.66 1/2, representing an 11-cent decline from previous levels. This bearish tone extends across related commodities, with soymeal futures particularly weak at $6.80, down $36, while soy oil futures managed slight gains of 90 to 97 points.

Supply Dynamics and Export Activity Signal Mixed Messages

Recent USDA data has painted a complex picture for the soybean market. The agency reported commercial export sales of 168,000 metric tons destined for China, while an additional 152,404 metric tons were recorded as sold to Mexico. December 1 soybean stocks reached 3.29 billion bushels, representing a 190 million bushel increase compared to the same period last year. These inventory levels appear to be weighing on sentiment, despite modest adjustments to production forecasts showing yields at 53 bushels per acre with harvested acreage reaching 80.4 million acres.

USDA’s latest updates included production figures of 4.262 billion bushels alongside revisions to export projections, which were reduced by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels. Crush demand estimates were raised by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels, ultimately supporting ending stock estimates at 350 million bushels—60 million bushels higher than previous assessments.

Global Production Shifts and Geopolitical Concerns

International factors are also shaping the market environment. Brazilian soybean production estimates were increased by 3 million metric tons to 178 million metric tons, adding to supply concerns. Meanwhile, Sinograin’s auction of Chinese state reserves released 1.1 million metric tons of soybeans into the market Tuesday, contributing to selling pressure.

Geopolitical developments emerged late Monday when trade-related tariff threats were introduced, creating uncertainty about agricultural export routes and market access. These developments remain fluid as key trading partners assess their strategic responses.

Contract-Specific Price Action

January 2026 soybeans are trading at $10.23 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents, while nearby cash positions reflect the broader weakness at $9.66 1/2. March 2026 contracts are trading at $10.38 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents, while May 2026 soybeans are at $10.51 3/4, down 10 cents. Delivery activity included 26 delivery notices issued against soybeans on Friday with 30 notices for January bean oil contracts.

The combination of adequate inventory levels, robust export competition, and evolving trade dynamics continues to create headwinds for soybean valuations in the near term.