Japan Moves Forward with Deep-Sea Rare Earth Testing Program Amid Supply Chain Pressures

As global competition for critical minerals intensifies, Japan is taking bold action. Starting this month, the nation will launch its pioneering deep-sea rare earth testing initiative in waters near Minamitori Island, located approximately 1,900 kilometers southeast of Tokyo. This venture marks a significant shift in how countries approach mineral independence during an era of heightened geopolitical tensions.

The Technical Challenge Ahead

The core objective of Japan’s marine earth testing program is straightforward yet ambitious: deploy equipment capable of collecting 350 metric tons of sediment daily while simultaneously assessing environmental consequences. The initial trial period, running from mid-January through mid-February, will serve as a critical proof-of-concept phase. Officials have indicated that a substantially expanded operation could commence in 2025 should early results prove encouraging.

Japan’s motivation stems from a stark reality: the nation remains heavily vulnerable to supply disruptions of rare earth materials essential for electronics, renewable energy systems, and defense applications. Beijing currently commands roughly 70 percent of global rare earth production and accounts for more than 90 percent of worldwide processing capacity. Tokyo sources approximately 60 percent of its rare earth imports directly from China and depends almost entirely on Chinese refineries for specialized heavy rare earths.

Why This Matters Now

This initiative reflects Tokyo’s growing anxiety about Beijing’s willingness to weaponize mineral exports. China recently imposed restrictions on overseas sales of dual-use technologies with military implications—a classification broad enough to potentially encompass certain rare earth materials. The 2010 episode remains fresh in Japanese memory: when territorial disputes triggered an undisclosed Chinese embargo on rare earth shipments to Japan, it devastated local manufacturers and inflicted serious economic damage.

Economic modeling suggests the consequences of another supply interruption would be severe. A three-month cutoff in rare earth supplies could inflict more than $4 billion in losses on Japanese industry, while a twelve-month embargo could reduce annual GDP by nearly half a percentage point.

Building Resilience Through Technology

Beyond immediate testing efforts, Japan is architecting a comprehensive domestic supply infrastructure. The Strategic Innovation Promotion Program aims to construct a dedicated processing facility on Minamitorishima by 2027, engineered to handle recovered seafloor mud and establish an integrated supply chain for marine-sourced rare earths. A full-scale demonstration operation scheduled for February 2027 will evaluate the facility’s capacity to process 350 metric tons of rare earth-bearing mud per day and validate commercial feasibility.

“Our ultimate goal is to prove the entire value chain—from extraction through processing—and determine whether it can be economically competitive,” explained a program director familiar with Japan’s strategic mineral development plans.

Japan is also exploring coordinated efforts with the United States on mineral development in the Minamitori waters, building upon bilateral commitments established last year to collaborate on extraction, refinement, and supply chain resilience for critical materials.

Environmental Considerations

Environmental advocates continue to voice concerns about potential ecosystem harm from deep-sea mining operations, noting that scientific understanding of abyssal environments remains incomplete. Despite these reservations, a growing number of nations are advancing exploratory projects as the scramble for critical minerals accelerates globally. Japan appears determined to proceed despite these uncertainties, viewing supply security as an overriding strategic imperative.