Institutional Money Flows Signal Bullish Thesis for Lithium Argentina (LAR)

Climbing Analyst Confidence, But Price Targets Tell Mixed Story

Scotiabank raised its rating on Lithium Argentina (NYSE:LAR) to Sector Outperform on January 12, 2026, signaling growing confidence in the lithium miner’s prospects. However, Wall Street’s consensus price target paints a more cautious picture. As of December 21, 2025, analysts project LAR could trade at $5.60 per share over the next 12 months, implying 19.73% downside from the $6.98 closing price. Price forecasts span a wide range—from $2.32 on the bearish end to $9.45 on the bull case—reflecting genuine uncertainty about the company’s trajectory.

The divergence between Scotiabank’s upgrade and the downside target suggests traders should view the analyst call as a relative strength signal rather than absolute bullish conviction. Non-GAAP earnings are projected at $0.33 per share.

Big Money is Stepping In—Quietly But Decisively

The real story lies beneath the headlines: institutional investors are accumulating LAR positions aggressively. A total of 161 funds and institutions now hold LAR shares, though this represents a slight decline of one owner (0.62%) quarter-over-quarter. What matters more is the magnitude of buying pressure.

Institutional investors collectively added 13.23% more shares in three months, bringing total holdings to 41,220K shares. The average fund portfolio allocation to LAR stands at 0.12% of assets—up 11.05% from the prior quarter—suggesting this isn’t yet a crowded trade but is gaining traction.

The put/call ratio of 0.11 reinforces the bullish narrative, indicating options traders are betting on higher prices despite analyst caution.

Heavyweight Positions Reveal Strategy Shift

Van Eck Associates, a major lithium-focused investor, nearly tripled its LAR stake from 4,375K shares to 9,594K shares (5.91% ownership), marking a 54.40% increase and a 189.07% surge in portfolio weight. This aggressive move suggests conviction in LAR’s lithium opportunity.

CenterBook Partners similarly doubled down, raising holdings from 2,078K to 4,200K shares (2.59% ownership)—a 50.52% bump in shares and 188.66% increase in allocation weight.

Not all flows are bullish. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS trimmed its position from 4,786K to 3,754K shares (2.31% ownership), though it still increased portfolio allocation by 3.83%, suggesting tactical rotation rather than conviction reversal.

REMX - VanEck Vectors Rare Earth added to its stake, growing from 2,862K to 3,109K shares (1.91% ownership), but paradoxically reduced portfolio weight by 11.96%, reflecting dilution from stronger moves in other holdings.

ARGT - Global X MSCI Argentina ETF decreased holdings from 3,193K to 2,957K shares (1.82% ownership), yet managed to lift portfolio allocation by 27.77%, indicating LAR’s relative strength within the Argentina ETF basket.

What This Means for Traders

Scotiabank’s upgrade combined with heavy institutional accumulation suggests LAR could be entering a new phase of investor interest. Yet the persistent 19.73% downside in consensus price targets acts as a ceiling—profitable trades may exist on strength, but breakout conviction remains elusive.