Oil Stocks React Differently to Venezuelan Shift: Why Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips Led the Rally

The Three Winners in an Otherwise Muted Market Response

When markets reopened Monday following the weekend’s major political upheaval in Venezuela, most oil stocks remained unresponsive. Yet three major U.S. oil companies bucked the trend: Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips all posted notable gains that immediately captured investors’ attention.

The market’s overall reaction was subdued—the S&P 500 inched up just 0.49% at open and added a further 0.14% during the session. However, these three oil stocks told a different story. Chevron emerged as the session’s standout performer among energy majors, gaining 5.5% from Friday’s close. ConocoPhillips followed with a 3.1% advance, while ExxonMobil posted a more modest 2.5% gain.

In stark contrast, other major oil producers showed little excitement. TotalEnergies dipped 0.35%, Shell fell 0.48%, and BP barely moved with a 0.87% gain. Smaller independent E&P firms like Occidental Petroleum, EOG Resources, and Diamondback Energy actually declined between 0.6% and 2.9% for the day.

Unpacking Why These Three Oil Stocks Diverged From Peers

The divergence wasn’t random. Understanding the separate histories of these companies with Venezuela reveals the market’s logic.

Chevron’s Unique Position

Among all U.S. oil producers, Chevron holds an exceptional position: it’s the only major American oil company that remained operationally active in Venezuela after the government’s 2007 nationalization of its oil sector. While other companies exited, Chevron negotiated minority stakeholder arrangements and continues operating multiple Venezuelan oilfields. These operations represent 20-25% of Venezuela’s total daily output.

Investors believed Chevron stood to gain most from any policy shift favoring American business interests. The potential for expanded access to Venezuela’s massive proven oil reserves—which rival or exceed Saudi Arabia’s deposits—triggered the stock’s sharp Monday performance.

Claims and Compensation for ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips

ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips pursued different strategies. Rather than accept minority roles after nationalization, both companies departed but pursued legal remedies. They filed arbitration claims seeking compensation for lost assets and operations.

International arbitration courts ruled in their favor, ordering Venezuela to pay ExxonMobil over $1 billion and ConocoPhillips over $10 billion. However, when U.S. sanctions targeted Venezuelan oil in 2019, payment flows halted completely. Monday’s market action suggested investors saw renewed prospects for settlement negotiations or partial compensation recovery under a potentially more accommodating Venezuelan administration.

The Tuesday Reality Check

The initial enthusiasm evaporated rapidly. By Tuesday’s close, the narrative had shifted considerably.

No company announced concrete new investment plans. Simultaneously, media estimates circulated regarding the scale of infrastructure rehabilitation needed—tens of billions of dollars spread across multiple years. This sobering assessment prompted swift corrections.

ConocoPhillips reversed 1.8% on Tuesday, ExxonMobil tumbled 3.2%, and Chevron—Monday’s champion—became Tuesday’s casualty, surrendering 4.2% and recording its worst performance since April 2025.

By week’s midpoint, all three oil stocks had surrendered most of their gains. ConocoPhillips sat just 0.8% above Friday’s close, Chevron hung onto a meager 0.7% gain, and ExxonMobil actually traded 1.1% below its Friday level. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 climbed 1.3% over the same period, leaving all three oil stocks underperforming the broader benchmark.

What Might Actually Materialize for Oil Stocks

The path forward remains genuinely uncertain for these three oil stocks and the broader energy sector’s Venezuelan exposure.

Potential positive scenarios exist. New offshore drilling opportunities could emerge, potentially benefiting Chevron (which already operates Venezuelan offshore infrastructure) or ExxonMobil (which maintains extensive Guyana offshore operations nearby). U.S. diplomatic efforts might facilitate compensation arrangements for ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips’ longstanding claims. Additionally, any significant boost to Venezuelan oil production could benefit U.S. Gulf Coast refineries specifically engineered to process the country’s heavy crude.

Conversely, anti-American sentiment or political reversals could discourage long-term commitments from U.S. oil firms. The geopolitical risk remains substantial.

Until clarity emerges on Venezuela’s actual trajectory and U.S. policy implementation, investors should treat Venezuelan opportunities as speculative possibilities rather than fundamental factors in their oil stock valuations. The Monday surge serves as a reminder that initial market reactions—even when internally logical—don’t always align with underlying realities.