#加密市场周期与长期趋势 VanEck's latest report is eye-opening. The current drop in BTC might only be around 40%, with the market having already digested 35%. That means there might only be another 5% decline at most. It doesn't sound like a bad thing, but what does it imply—2026 is likely to be a year of consolidation.

I think this judgment is quite reliable. The four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin is still in effect this time, and history is truly amazing. Currently, global liquidity is mixed with both optimism and concern. Rate cuts provide some support, but on the US side, AI-related spending and a fragile financing market are expanding credit spreads, and market leverage has been reset after multiple rounds of correction.

Instead of expecting a surge or a crash, it's better to stay grounded. The dollar-cost averaging strategy recommended by VanEck actually tells us—allocate 1-3% in BTC, add to positions during liquidation, and reduce holdings when speculation is overheated. It sounds simple, but this disciplined approach is the easiest to survive in a cyclical market.

If 2026 truly turns out to be a consolidation year, then the opportunities lie in the details. On-chain activity remains weak, but signs of improvement are already visible, which could be a prelude to the next wave of market movement. Be patient, don’t rush.