#预测市场 Polymarket's BTC forecast data shows a clear directional shift. In just two days, the probability of January reaching $100,000 has jumped from 27% to 38%, an increase of 41%, reflecting a significant change in trader sentiment.

More notably, there is an overall shift in the probability structure— the probability at the $95,000 level has decreased from 91% to 69%, while the expected decline at $85,000 has dropped from 68% to 42%. This indicates that market participants are reassessing the upside potential, with an increased risk appetite. However, it is important to note that the $100,000 probability remains relatively low, suggesting that the market remains cautious about this target.

The rising trading activity in forecast markets is essentially driven by capital. The key is to distinguish whether this is genuine on-chain capital inflow or merely emotional resonance at the derivatives level. It is recommended to monitor large address holdings and exchange fund flow data within the corresponding period to determine whether there is real capital backing this recent increase in probability.

Forecast markets reflect probabilities, not certainties. A 38% probability means there is also a 62% risk of the opposite.