#比特币2026年行情展望 $BTC yesterday's market was indeed risky. It surged to around 93500 in the morning, faced resistance, and then started to fluctuate downward. Friends with cost orders around 92500 decisively exited, avoiding nearly 5000 points of decline afterward—such stop-loss awareness really saves lives. I myself placed a long order at 87500, preparing to ambush, but the premise is to strictly control leverage and position size; this cannot be sloppy.

From a macro perspective, the data provided by the CME FedWatch Tool is very informative. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is only 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is as high as 95%—the market pricing has basically recognized that there will be no rate cut in the short term. Looking ahead to March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is only 20.6%, while the chance of no cut is 78.5%, and a cumulative 50 basis point cut is just 0.9%. This indicates that in the coming months, tightening expectations will still dominate. In such a macro environment, going long requires extra caution, and risk management is of utmost importance.