#比特币价格走势 The probability of BTC breaking $100,000 in January has rapidly increased from 27% to 38%, which is worth noting. The price has risen over 40% in two days, indicating that market expectations are dynamically adjusting.

From the data, the probability of $90,000 remains stable between 69-91%, which is a relatively stable support level. Looking downward, the probability of dropping to $80,000 has decreased from 30% to 20%, a more meaningful signal—short-selling sentiment is clearly weakening. The probability of hitting $85,000 has dropped from 68% to 42%, with downward pressure decreasing accordingly.

This kind of one-sided upward forecast probability curve usually reflects market participants gradually increasing their bullish expectations. However, it is important to be cautious, as the liquidity and composition of participants in the prediction market can affect pricing accuracy and should not be the sole basis for decision-making.

The key still lies in on-chain fund flows—large transfers, exchange inflows and outflows, and changes in long-term holders' positions are the true market signals. The rising forecast probability is more a reflection of market sentiment.