## U.S. Stock Market Since Trump: Why Tech Independence Has Become the New Hedge Against Tariff Uncertainty

The stock market since Trump's return to office has faced mounting pressure from unpredictable trade policies. Import tariffs continue to reshape investor sentiment, with new levies announced frequently while others are scaled back just as quickly. A Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could arrive as early as this week, potentially triggering significant market volatility.

For investors concerned about how the stock market performs amid these policy swings, domestically-focused technology holdings have emerged as a compelling defensive strategy. The iShares U.S. Tech Independence Focused ETF (NYSEMKT: IETC), managed by BlackRock, focuses exclusively on American technology firms that manufacture and develop most of their products and intellectual property within U.S. borders.

## Why Domestic Tech Stands Apart

When tariffs apply to imported goods, they typically target physical products rather than digital services. This fundamental distinction explains why the iShares ETF allocates 42.4% of its portfolio to software companies—these firms generate revenue with minimal exposure to import surcharges.

The semiconductor sector represents another significant holding at 25.1%, an allocation that may seem counterintuitive given that many advanced chips originate from Taiwan and elsewhere overseas. However, the Trump administration has strategically exempted numerous semiconductor imports due to their critical role in artificial intelligence infrastructure. A 25% tariff took effect on certain chip imports in January 2026, yet chips destined for U.S. data centers—where AI development concentrates—remain untouched. Additionally, all equipment used to expand America's domestic semiconductor manufacturing remains duty-free.

The ETF's portfolio comprises 87 holdings, with the top 10 positions commanding 60.3% of assets:

| Position | Company | Weighting |
|----------|---------|-----------|
| 1 | Palantir Technologies | 12.27% |
| 2 | Broadcom | 11.00% |
| 3 | Nvidia | 7.19% |
| 4 | Microsoft | 5.48% |
| 5 | Oracle | 5.33% |
| 6 | Alphabet | 5.29% |
| 7 | Amazon | 4.30% |
| 8 | Salesforce | 3.75% |
| 9 | International Business Machines | 3.24% |
| 10 | Apple | 2.44% |

*Data as of January 14, 2026*

## Performance Record: A Tariff-Era Success Story

Throughout 2025, as the stock market since Trump's policy announcements experienced turbulence, this specialty ETF delivered 19.1% returns—outperforming the S&P 500's 16.4% gain. The difference highlights how tariff-resistant positioning can enhance portfolio resilience during trade policy uncertainty.

This outperformance extends beyond a single year. Since its establishment in 2018 during Trump's first presidential term, the iShares ETF has generated a 20.7% compound annual return compared to the S&P 500's 13.7%. The consistent edge demonstrates that domestic tech concentration has provided structural advantages independent of specific policy cycles.

## Looking Ahead: Trade Policy and Portfolio Construction

Regardless of the Supreme Court's forthcoming decision on IEEPA tariffs, the Trump administration has signaled its intention to pursue alternative mechanisms for collecting duties on imports. This suggests that trade policy headwinds may persist, making tariff-resistant holdings increasingly valuable.

Rather than concentrating entirely on this single strategy, sophisticated investors should consider the iShares ETF as a component of a broader diversified portfolio. As the competitive landscape of global commerce continues shifting, holdings insulated from sudden tariff shocks could serve as valuable ballast for overall returns.

The Supreme Court ruling remains uncertain, but domestically-anchored technology investments offer tangible protection against the geopolitical and trade-policy risks now embedded in the stock market since Trump took office.