The prediction market has exploded: daily trading volume reaches $800 million, hitting a new all-time high, with new players gradually eating into the market share of leading platforms.

The prediction market is experiencing an unprecedented boom. According to the latest news, the daily trading volume on January 21 exceeded $814 million, setting a new all-time high. More notably, this is not just a breakthrough in data but also signifies a profound change in the overall market landscape. Emerging platform Opinion is rapidly eroding the market share of Kalshi and Polymarket, while traditional finance and major tech platforms are accelerating their entry. The prediction market has officially shifted from a niche market to mainstream.

Explosive Growth in Market Size

Record-Breaking Trading Data

According to Dune data, the daily trading volume on January 21 reached $814 million, an unprecedented height in the history of prediction markets. Prior to this, on January 17, Kalshi set a record with a daily trading volume of $474.2 million. These two data points clearly demonstrate the accelerated growth trend of the prediction market in January.

Since 2026, the prediction market has experienced six consecutive months of trading activity growth. In just January alone, the total platform trading volume has reached approximately $10.5 billion. At this rate, January is expected to break the monthly record. This indicates that the prediction market has evolved from a hot topic last year into a real market phenomenon.

Quiet Changes in Platform Landscape

Although Kalshi still holds an absolute dominant position, the more noteworthy development is Opinion’s rapid rise. As an emerging platform, Opinion has already captured about 10% of the market share in a short period, with growth far surpassing leading platforms. This indicates increasing market acceptance of new entrants and also hints that the monopolistic position of top platforms is being challenged.

Key Indicators of Mainstream Adoption

From Niche to Mainstream Transition

According to relevant sources, Delphi Digital states that the prediction market has officially completed the first phase of transformation from niche to mainstream. This is reflected not only in the growth of trading volume but also in the diversification of participants.

Factors driving this growth include:

• Major event effects: Political and economic events such as Federal Reserve chair elections and Greenland acquisition drive user engagement
• Platform diversification: Expanding from political predictions to sports, economics, and other fields
• User education: Increasing number of ordinary investors are recognizing and using prediction markets
• Regulatory progress: Platforms like Kalshi obtaining CFTC approval reduce participation barriers

Entry of Traditional Finance and Tech Giants

The explosive growth of prediction markets has attracted the attention of heavyweight institutions. According to relevant information, CME Group plans to launch sports-related prediction markets, Coinbase has launched its own prediction market product, and Robinhood is building internal prediction market capabilities through the acquisition of MIAXdx. These moves indicate that prediction markets have evolved from niche crypto-native products into battlegrounds for traditional finance and tech giants.

Future Evolution of the Competitive Landscape

From Liquidity Competition to Infrastructure Competition

Relevant information points out that the current stage of competition is no longer about who can offer more event bets, but about who can become the core on-chain infrastructure for risk pricing, options, and governance. This means:

• Kalshi relies on CFTC compliance framework and traditional financial background to continue consolidating its institutional user base
• Polymarket leverages crypto-native liquidity as a moat, establishing advantages that are hard to replicate
• Emerging platforms like Opinion need to find differentiated competitive paths

Personal Perspective

Based on current data, the growth of the prediction market is far from peaking. Major events continue to drive user participation, traditional finance’s entry expands market capacity, and the rise of emerging platforms indicates a strong demand for innovative product forms. Competition at this stage will become more intense, but the overall market size is rapidly increasing, providing opportunities for all parties.

Summary

The daily trading volume of prediction markets surpassing $800 million is not only a milestone but also marks a qualitative shift in this market. The market has evolved from a niche product into a mainstream financial tool, with platform landscape reshuffling. The entry of traditional finance and tech giants will further expand the market size. In this new phase, the core of competition is no longer just about trading volume but about who can build stronger infrastructure and user ecosystems. For investors, this explosion in prediction markets is worth continuous attention, as it may just be the beginning.