The latest CME Federal Reserve Watch data shows that market expectations for the Federal Reserve's recent policy have become interestingly divided.

In January, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was only 5%, while the probability of holding rates steady was as high as 95%. This indicates that, in the short term, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will hold steady.

However, looking at the cumulative cycle through March, the situation becomes more nuanced. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 20.6%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 78.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is very low at 0.9%.

In other words, the current market consensus is that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain the current interest rate level over the next two months. This has far-reaching implications for both the crypto space and traditional financial markets—the continued tightening expectations may continue to influence the pace of liquidity release.