ETH above $147 hides a $1.39 billion short liquidation risk

ETH is currently hovering around $2934, but an invisible “liquidation net” has already been set up in the market. According to the latest data, if ETH breaks through $3081, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.39 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2788, the long liquidation strength will be $330 million. This data reflects the subtle balance and significant risks present in the current market.

Asymmetric Distribution of Liquidation Strength

Why is the short liquidation pressure so high?

The $1.39 billion short liquidation strength is more than four times the $330 million long liquidation strength. This huge disparity tells us a key piece of information: the market’s bearish sentiment toward ETH is much stronger than its bullish outlook.

According to the latest news, this bearish sentiment has context. A whale sold 10,000 ETH at an average price of $3321 on the morning of January 19, successfully exiting before the decline and making a profit of $1.51 million. Meanwhile, a trader has floating profits exceeding $1.83 million from shorting ETH. These large fund movements reinforce the market’s bearish consensus.

Distance from Price to Key Liquidation Points

It appears symmetrical, but in reality, it is not. An upward move needs to break through $147 to trigger $1.39 billion in short liquidations, creating strong reverse pressure. While the downward move is similarly close, the liquidation strength is only a quarter of that on the upside.

Deeper Market Structure Implications

Why are shorts so concentrated?

This reflects market participants’ pessimistic outlook on ETH’s recent trend. From the news, ETH has fallen 7.80% in the past 24 hours and 11.74% over the past 7 days. During such declines, many short sellers may have built positions at high levels, expecting further drops.

But this also means risk is accumulating. When the price approaches $3081, these short holders will face significant stop-loss pressure. Once broken, the $1.39 billion in liquidations could trigger a “waterfall” decline or a violent rebound in the opposite direction.

The whale’s choice is critical

The whale selling 10,000 ETH at $3321 is quite interesting. This price is $387 above the current level and $240 above the upward liquidation key point at $3081. This indicates that large funds believe the upside potential is limited, or they have already exited early to avoid risk.

According to reports, Trend Research currently holds 626,700 ETH, with floating profits narrowed to $61.7 million, indicating that large institutions are also facing profit compression.

Technical and Market Momentum

Short-term pressure indicators

Technical analysis from the reports shows ETH’s KDJ indicator is in overbought territory, the MACD histogram is gradually shortening, and bullish momentum is weakening. This aligns with the liquidation data: the market appears somewhat exhausted and lacks upward energy.

However, there are also positive signals. The reports mention that the ETH/BTC trading pair has risen about 8% since October, and the altcoin season index has slightly increased to 33, indicating relative strength of Ethereum within the crypto market.

Possible Future Trends

Difficulty of upward breakout

For ETH to break through $3081 and trigger $1.39 billion in short liquidations, several obstacles must be overcome: first, technical overbought conditions; second, whales have already taken profits and exited at high levels; third, strong resistance from short sellers.

But once broken, the reverse liquidation pressure could be quite intense, similar to a pressure release process.

Downside risks are relatively smaller

The liquidation strength below $2788 is only $330 million, relatively mild. But this does not mean there are no risks on the downside; rather, long holders have smaller risk exposure.

Summary

ETH is currently in a highly asymmetric liquidation structure. Short liquidation pressure is four times that of longs, but the distances to key levels on both sides are roughly equal. This indicates the market is betting on a direction, but the risk-reward ratio is not balanced.

In the short term, the main pressures are: whales have already taken profits and exited, technical signals show weakness, and market sentiment is strongly bearish. But in the long term, the $1.39 billion short liquidation pressure is a potential trigger point that cannot be ignored. Once the price breaks $3081, it could trigger a chain reaction.

The key depends on upcoming trading volume and price action. If ETH can stabilize above $3000 in the near term and gradually accumulate, it may create conditions for an upward move; otherwise, continued decline could quickly reach the critical long liquidation level. The market’s choice now lies in the hands of traders.