#Polymarket平台 Seeing that major institutions are all hyping prediction markets, I need to pour some cold water first. Platforms like Polymarket are indeed popular, but don’t be blinded by the hype—the waters here are deeper than you think.

I understand the logic behind institutions favoring prediction markets: stablecoins + compliant frameworks + traditional capital inflows have indeed provided a fertile ground for these platforms to survive. But the problem is, the more institutions participate, the more retail investors follow suit, making this market more susceptible to becoming a new battleground for cutting leeks. I’ve seen too many people fooled by the concept of "democratic predictions," only to lose a lot of money in liquidity traps.

Polymarket appears decentralized, but in reality, its counterparty structure can be easily manipulated by large funds. You might think you can make quick money predicting the US elections, but the real profiters are those institutions that have laid out their positions early and hold informational advantages. Retail investors are just playing the role of the supporting cast.

It’s not that prediction markets have no future, but you need to be clear about what you’re doing. This isn’t investing; it’s a game of probabilities, and it’s a game designed by institutions. If you insist on playing, remember three points: first, only use money you can afford to lose; second, don’t chase hot events—they tend to have the worst liquidity at those times; third, be clear about who your trading counterparts are—markets dominated by big funds often hide the greatest risks.

The secret to surviving long on-chain is: don’t go where the hype is hottest first. Wait until most people have entered, then it’s time to be cautious.