#加密市场周期与长期趋势 Recently, I came across Fidelity's 2026 outlook, and one detail made me reflect repeatedly—the statement that "the four-year cycle may still disappear, which remains to be seen." This phrase sounds plain, but the implications behind it are worth paying attention to.

Over the past decade, we have become accustomed to the cyclical fluctuations of the crypto market, with fear and greed swinging like a pendulum. However, as new players such as institutional funds and national reserves enter the scene, the nature of the market is changing. More countries are purchasing Bitcoin as foreign exchange reserves, and this demand is real. But the risks are equally real—when a bear market arrives, these large holdings could exert downward pressure on prices.

Honestly, predicting whether the cycle will disappear is of limited significance. The key is how we respond to this uncertainty.

The temptation of short-term gains always exists, but I agree with Fidelity's advice: real opportunities are reserved for those with patience. Long-term holders are not too late to enter now, but the premise is that you understand the extent of the pullback you can tolerate, manage your positions well, and avoid putting all your chips in one basket. This market is changing rapidly, with diverse participants, which makes it even more important to stay alert—neither be knocked down by fear nor blinded by greed.

Time will provide the answer, and what we need to do is stay steady throughout this process.