Base Metal Shift: How Solar Manufacturers Are Solving Silver's Price Crisis

The solar industry faces an unprecedented challenge—silver prices have doubled in just four months, hitting an all-time high of US$93.77 in January 2025. What was once a 5 percent cost component has ballooned to 14 percent of total production expenses according to Bloomberg NEF analysis. For manufacturers already competing on razor-thin margins, this isn’t sustainable. The answer? A strategic pivot toward copper and alternative metallization technologies that could fundamentally reshape how solar panels are built.

The Silver Price Squeeze: From Commodity to Crisis

Silver’s exceptional electrical and thermal conductivity made it the go-to material for photovoltaic production. But the mathematics no longer work. When silver traded at US$42-46 per ounce in September 2023, it represented a manageable input cost. The near 200 percent price surge since then has forced a reckoning across the industry.

China, which commands over 80 percent of global solar manufacturing capacity, is leading the charge away from silver dependency. According to Bloomberg reporting, LONGi Green Energy Technology announced in early January that it would begin mass production of silver-free solar cells by Q2 2025. JinkoSolar Holding simultaneously revealed large-scale production plans for base metal alternatives, while Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy is already producing 6.5 gigawatt solar cells without relying on silver.

“This convergence among leading players signals a structural shift, not an isolated trend,” noted Antonio Di Giacomo, senior market analyst at XS.com. “The imbalance between silver supply and competing industrial demand—from electronics to investment—has squeezed margins beyond acceptable levels.”

Copper: The Pragmatic Alternative

Among base metals, copper has emerged as the leading candidate. A troy ounce of silver currently trades at approximately 22,000 percent above a troy ounce of copper, making the economic case obvious. More importantly, copper benefits from abundant supply and a diversified global supply chain that silver simply cannot match.

The conductivity gap is narrow enough to manage. While copper’s electrical performance trails silver by a modest margin, the abundance factor tilts the equation decisively. Manufacturers exploring how to build a solar panel with copper instead of silver also gain exposure to a far more stable commodity market with less geopolitical risk.

However, technical hurdles remain real. Copper’s tendency to oxidize creates durability concerns, particularly under harsh environmental conditions. Different solar cell technologies present different engineering challenges.

Technology Matters: TOPCon vs. Back-Contact Cells

The current market leader, Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) technology, requires extremely high fabrication temperatures that complicate copper substitution. However, LONGi Green Energy’s focus on back-contact (BC) cell architectures sidesteps this problem. The manufacturing process for copper-metallized BC cells is substantially simpler than adapting the same process to TOPCon cells.

Performance data is proving encouraging. New copper-based cell designs are achieving efficiency levels comparable to traditional silver systems, with some installations showing improved mechanical strength and module durability. Research from Rinnovabili indicates that BC modules can generate up to 11 percent more energy over their operational lifetime compared to TOPCon technology.

Industry expectations suggest TOPCon will still dominate 70 percent of the market through 2026, but copper-based alternatives aren’t waiting. The cost gap between manufacturing BC cells and TOPCon cells is narrowing, with parity expected by 2030. This creates a realistic window where both technologies coexist through 2028-2030.

Ripple Effects on Silver Markets

The Silver Institute projected in November 2025 that industrial silver demand would contract by 2 percent in 2025, declining to 665 million ounces. The solar sector alone is expected to reduce silver consumption by roughly 5 percent—a significant reduction occurring even as global PV installations hit record numbers. The cause? Less silver used per individual module.

“A sustained reduction in solar sector silver demand could alter fundamental market dynamics,” Di Giacomo warned. Yet the real impact remains uncertain. Two competing technologies could coexist for years, and TOPCon’s current market dominance means silver demand won’t collapse immediately. The transition will be gradual rather than catastrophic.

For solar manufacturers and investors, the message is clear: the industry isn’t abandoning silver out of preference, but practical economics and innovation have made the shift inevitable. Understanding this transition is essential for anyone tracking raw material costs, supply chain resilience, or long-term trends in renewable energy manufacturing.