Tom Lee's new prediction: Bitcoin will dip first and then rise in 2026, but this time he didn't mention $250,000

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee reiterated in a recent interview that Bitcoin will hit a new high this year, but he adjusted his forecast framework. He believes the market will experience a “drop first, then rise” process, ending the year strongly. Interestingly, he did not mention the previously suggested target of @E5@ USD this time. Meanwhile, his company BitMine is actively increasing its Ethereum holdings, demonstrating confidence in the crypto market through action.

The Logic of Drop First, Then Rise

Two reasons for short-term correction

Tom Lee’s forecast framework is clear: there will be a dip first, then a rise by 2026. There are two main factors dragging this outlook.

First is tariff risk. New tariff policies could cause short-term pressure on the market, affecting not only traditional equities but also the risk sentiment in the crypto market.

Second is political divergence. Policy uncertainty in Washington will hinder sustained market growth in the early part of the year. Tom Lee expects US stocks to initially pull back 15% to 20%, and this correction outlook also applies to crypto assets.

Why a strong finish is expected

The core factor supporting a rebound at year-end is the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve. Tom Lee believes that as Fed policies become clearer, the market will gain certainty and support. Additionally, the progress of the “Clarity Act” is a major positive for the crypto industry, sending positive signals.

From another perspective, the crypto market experienced a heavy blow in October last year. Over time, this impact will be gradually digested, leaving room for recovery.

Current Market Validates the First Half of the Prediction

Data shows the market is indeed undergoing a correction.

BTC is currently priced at $88,859. Over the past 7 days, it has fallen 6.6%, indicating a correction phase. This aligns with Tom Lee’s “drop first” prediction.

Institutional Actions Speak Louder Than Words

Interestingly, Tom Lee not only expresses optimism but also demonstrates it with real capital.

According to the latest reports, BitMine purchased 35,628 ETH last week, costing $110 million. This sizable transaction reflects Tom Lee’s genuine confidence in the crypto market. More aggressively, BitMine has been staking ETH continuously, recently staking an additional 86,848 ETH within the last five hours, bringing its total staked ETH to 1,771,936 ETH, worth $56.6 billion.

Currently, BitMine controls 4.167 million ETH, accounting for 3.4% of the circulating supply. Such a large holding and staking position indicate that Tom Lee is not just talking but actively deploying on a large scale.

Consistent signals through actions

It’s noteworthy that BitMine continued to increase its holdings even as Ethereum’s price faced pressure. Reports indicate that ETH plummeted 8% over the weekend due to scam concerns, yet Tom Lee remained steadfast in buying. This contrarian move during market pessimism is often seen as a strong signal of institutional confidence.

Why the $250,000 Target Was Not Reiterated

The news explicitly states that Tom Lee “did not mention the previous prediction of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 in recent months.” This change warrants attention.

A possible explanation is that changing market conditions led Tom Lee to adjust his specific target. While he still maintains the overall direction of reaching “a new all-time high,” he has become more cautious about specific numbers. This actually shows a more rational approach—staying true to the big picture of a new high, but remaining flexible on exact figures, unaffected by short-term price fluctuations.

Key Risk Factors

Whether the market will develop as per Tom Lee’s forecast depends on several variables:

• The final implementation of tariff policies
• The actual pace of Fed rate cuts
• Progress of the “Clarity Act”
• Evolution of geopolitical risks

Any changes in these factors could alter the magnitude and timing of market corrections.

Summary

Tom Lee’s 2026 forecast framework is relatively clear: short-term pressure, medium-term optimism, and a strong finish at year-end. The current market correction aligns with the first half of this prediction. More importantly, his company’s large-scale ETH accumulation and staking demonstrate real capital backing his confidence in the crypto market.

However, the success of this forecast depends on external conditions such as Fed policies and tariff implementations. Investors should closely monitor these developments rather than blindly trust any single viewpoint. The ultimate market trajectory will be determined by multiple interconnected factors.